AUD/USD Forecast Today: Neutral Stance Ahead of the Fed Decision

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 28, 2026, 06:50 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades with a neutral technical bias ahead of high-impact Federal Reserve announcements. Price action is currently contained between the daily pivot at 0.70238 and immediate resistance at 0.70393.

Market Snapshot Ahead of the Fed Event

During the ongoing Asia session, with the market looking ahead to the London open at 07:00 UTC, AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.70316. This represents a gain of 0.00079, or 0.11% on the day. The pair has established a daily range between the day low at 0.70205 and the day high at 0.70531. The resulting intraday movement spans 32.6 pips, which accounts for 73% of the 14-day average true range of 44.9 pips. Price positioning shows the pair currently situated between the daily pivot at 0.70238 and R1 at 0.70393.

Key Technical Indicators in Focus

The technical indicators across different timeframes highlight a split in momentum, supporting a neutral overall bias. On the daily chart, the trend state is currently mixed, even though the price maintains a position above the 200-day exponential moving average. When examining the shorter intraday periods, the 4-hour trend is clearly up, and the 1-hour trend similarly registers as up. Because these major timeframes fail to align in a single direction, a definitive trend bias cannot be established for the session. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index on the daily chart sits near the neutral zone at 52.2, reinforcing the lack of strong directional conviction.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

When examining the key technical thresholds, the nearest support level is the daily pivot at 0.70238, while the closest resistance stands just above at R1 at 0.70393. Turning to recent historical price action, yesterday's bar closed after printing a previous day high at 0.70394 and a previous day low at 0.70082. Expanding the view to the 5-day window, the high rests at 0.70394, with the low located at 0.69879. The broader 20-day range also shares a high at 0.70394, while the low for that period sits much further down at 0.68932. Additionally, significant round levels are positioned below the current price at 0.7 and above the price at 0.705.

Potential Scenarios for Post-Announcement Moves

Looking at potential directional moves, the bullish scenario identifies a trigger at R1 at 0.70393. A confirmed break above this resistance would open the way to the target at R2 at 0.70550; however, a move back below the daily pivot at 0.70238 would invalidate this bullish view.

On the downside, S1 at 0.70081 acts as the trigger for the bearish scenario. A break below this support level would open the way to a lower target at S2 at 0.69926. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.70238 would invalidate this bearish case.

Economic Calendar Highlights and Context

Fundamental attention is firmly fixed on the economic calendar, with the US Federal Reserve taking center stage. Today at 18:00 UTC, the market faces the Fed Interest Rate Decision, where the estimate remains steady at 4%, matching the previous rate. This arrives alongside the Fed Monetary Policy Statement at 18:00 UTC, followed closely by the FOMC Press Conference at 18:30 UTC. Furthermore, tomorrow introduces additional US economic data, including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, alongside the Annualized Gross Domestic Product figures and Initial Jobless Claims.

In the broader newsflow, coverage from financial media publishers like FX Street and Forexcom primarily focuses on the Australian Dollar consolidating its recent gains following inflation data, as market participants patiently await the imminent policy signals from the Fed. An independent opportunity reading measuring news sentiment presently registers a bullish score of 48. Serving as background context, the latest Commitments of Traders report, as of the week to October 20, showed large speculators were net short AUD/USD, and notably, these traders added to net short AUD/USD positions. Additionally, US Treasury yields recorded at the daily close on October 27 saw the 2-year yield at 4.70%, up 2 basis points, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.99%, down 1 basis point.

Summary Outlook for the Remainder of the Session

Moving deeper into the session, the technical alignment on AUD/USD remains neutral as the market navigates the zone between the 0.70238 support and 0.70393 resistance. Price action currently sits between these immediate technical boundaries as the market awaits the fundamental catalysts from the upcoming US session.