AUD/USD Forecast Today: Pair Holds Near 0.6938 Before US Data

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 15, 2026, 07:07 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades near 0.69378, pinned between S1 at 0.6942 and the 5-day low at 0.69318, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing down ahead of a packed US data slate at 12:30 UTC.

Where AUD/USD Stands in the London Session

AUD/USD is changing hands at 0.69378 (bid 0.69378 / ask 0.69401, a 2.3-pip spread) during the London session, down 0.45% on the day after easing from the previous close at 0.69695. New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC.

The day's range spans a high of 0.69792 and a low of 0.69362, a 43-pip spread. Measured against the 14-day average true range of 45.6 pips, that range already covers 94% of typical daily volatility.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily chart is in a downtrend, with price below its 200-day EMA at 0.69757 and under the 20-day EMA at 0.70054 and 50-day EMA at 0.70437. The 4-hour chart is also down, trading beneath its 20-period EMA at 0.69707 and 50-period EMA at 0.69736, and the 1-hour chart agrees, sitting below its 20-period EMA at 0.69595 and 50-period EMA at 0.69685.

All three timeframes point the same way. Daily RSI at 40.4 reflects soft momentum rather than an oversold reading, and the pair is down 0.32% over five days and down 2.08% over twenty, consistent with the slide beneath the daily EMAs.

Key Levels: Pivots, Ranges and Round Numbers

Price sits between S2 at 0.69146 and S1 at 0.6942, with nearest resistance at S1 just 4.2 pips above and nearest support at the 5-day low of 0.69318, 6 pips below. The daily pivot stands higher at 0.69771, with R1 at 0.70045, R2 at 0.70396 and R3 at 0.7067 further up; on the downside, S2 at 0.69146 and S3 at 0.68795 mark the next pivot supports. The pivot point calculator shows how each of these levels is built.

Yesterday's session, October 14, opened at 0.69793 and closed at 0.69695, with a high of 0.70121 and a low of 0.69496 for a 62.5-pip range. The 5-day window runs from a high of 0.70121 to a low of 0.69318, while the wider 20-day window stretches from a high of 0.71393 to a low of 0.69029. The round number at 0.69 sits below current price and the round number at 0.695 sits just above it.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 0.70045 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70396; that view would be undercut by a move back below the daily pivot at 0.69771.

On the downside, a slide through S2 at 0.69146 would expose S3 at 0.68795 as the next pivot support; a recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.69771 would invalidate that case.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The US calendar is heavy at 12:30 UTC. Three releases carry high-impact billing: Retail Sales (MoM), previous 1.2 and estimate 0.3; Retail Sales Control Group, previous 1.4; and core PPI (YoY), previous 4.6 and estimate 4.4. The same hour brings a run of medium-impact data, including PPI (MoM) (previous 0.4, estimate 0.5), PPI (YoY) (previous 5.4, estimate 5.3), core PPI (MoM) (previous 0.2, estimate 0.3), Initial Jobless Claims (previous 197, estimate 200), the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (previous 7.6, estimate 10.3), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (previous 37.8, estimate 28.4) and Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (previous 1.4, estimate 0.5). The Monthly Budget Statement follows at 18:00 UTC (previous -166.8, estimate -29), and Fed's Hammack is due to speak at 20:30 UTC. The economic calendar guide explains how to track a session this crowded. Tomorrow brings the IMF Meeting and a high-impact speech from Fed Chair Warsh.

Newsflow around the pair, as reported by Forexcom, FX Street and ExchangeRates, has centered on whether the pair's recent technical shift can hold and on the Reserve Bank of Australia's exposure to tightening conditions in global bond markets.

CFTC data for the week to October 6, 2026, show large speculators net short AUD/USD, and the latest report shows speculators added to net short AUD/USD over the week. US Treasury yields at the October 14 close put the 2-year at 4.82%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.19%, down 2 basis points.

News sentiment tracking shows coverage volume running at 177% of its 90-day average, while the opportunity read stands at -79, a bearish score; this measures the tone of coverage, not a forecast.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD trades on the back foot into the London-to-New York handover, wedged between S1 at 0.6942 and the 5-day low at 0.69318 with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing lower. A dense US data slate at 12:30 UTC, starting with Retail Sales (MoM), is the next test of whether the pivot structure above at 0.69771 or the pivot supports below hold through the day.