AUD/USD Forecast Today: Trend Points Lower Ahead of US PCE

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 30, 2026, 08:32 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD remains on a downward trajectory across all major timeframes. Ahead of high-impact US PCE inflation and ADP employment prints, the technical focus rests on whether immediate support at yesterday's low of 0.69649 can withstand the pressure.

Current Price Action and ATR Volatility

During the London session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.69747, registering a daily decline of -0.00089 or -0.13% relative to the previous close of 0.69836. Today's price action has charted a high of 0.69937 and a low of 0.69578. This intraday range of 35.9 pips currently accounts for 79% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.00455 or 45.5 pips. Traders monitoring these structural shifts in volatility can review our ATR indicator guide for deeper context on today's range.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The technical posture remains consistently bearish across multiple timeframes, with daily, H4, and H1 momentum structures in full agreement. On the daily chart, the trend is down; the price is trading below its 20-day EMA of 0.70867 and the 50-day EMA of 0.70882, though it remains above its 200-day EMA of 0.6967. The daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 31, pointing to significant downward momentum without yet crossing into extreme oversold territory.

This weak momentum is echoed on shorter intervals. The H4 trend is down, with its 20-period EMA at 0.70018 and the 50-period EMA at 0.704. Similarly, the H1 chart is locked in a down state, with the 20-period EMA at 0.69795 and the 50-period EMA at 0.69931. For ongoing market tracking, traders can follow our comprehensive AUD/USD technical analysis.

Key Pivot Points and Historical Levels

Understanding the immediate boundaries of the market requires checking the nearest technical obstacles. The closest resistance level is the daily pivot at 0.69921, which sits 17.4 pips above current price action, while the nearest support is yesterday's low of 0.69649, located 9.8 pips below the current quote. Key pivot levels for the session include the daily pivot at 0.69921, with resistance levels mapped at R1 at 0.70193, R2 at 0.7055, and R3 at 0.70822. Below the price, support levels are plotted at S1 at 0.69564, S2 at 0.69292, and S3 at 0.68935.

Looking at broader structural zones, yesterday's high is located at 0.70278, and yesterday's close is at 0.69836. Over a 5-day horizon, the high is marked at 0.71174, while the 5-day low is established at 0.69649. For a broader view, the 20-day high is situated at 0.72369, whereas the 20-day low sits at 0.69649. Psychological round levels further define the range, with a major level above at 0.7 and a support level below at 0.695. You can trace these levels in real-time using our AUD/USD live rates and pivots interface.

Bullish and Bearish Trade Scenarios

Depending on how the market reacts to today's incoming data, traders can establish specific scenarios. A bullish structure would be triggered by a confirmed break above R1 at 0.70193. This development would open the path toward the target level at R2 of 0.7055, while a drop back below the daily pivot of 0.69921 would invalidate the bullish perspective.

On the bearish side, a breakout below S1 at 0.69564 serves as the critical trigger. A sustained move below this level could target the S2 support level at 0.69292, with any recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.69921 invalidating this bearish layout. To manage potential trade parameters and exposure, consider using our interactive position size calculator.

Economic Calendar and News Sentiment

A heavy economic calendar is scheduled for today, bringing multiple high-impact catalysts from the United States. At 12:15 UTC, the ADP Employment Change report is scheduled for release with an estimate of 70, up from the previous reading of 38. This is followed at 12:30 UTC by the high-impact Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index YoY, which is expected to remain steady at 3.3, and the Core PCE MoM index, estimated at 0.3 compared to the previous 0.2. At the same time today, several medium-impact data points will cross the wires, including annualized GDP (expected at 1.5), Personal Spending MoM (estimated at 0.8), Personal Income MoM (expected at 0.4), and Personal Consumption Expenditures YoY (estimated at 3.7). The Chicago PMI is scheduled for 13:45 UTC today with an estimate of 51.2, while monetary policy updates will conclude with speeches by the Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC and Goolsbee at 20:05 UTC today.

This regulatory and macroeconomic backdrop is reflected in recent media coverage. According to reports from Forexcom, softer Australian inflation prints have unwound prior expectations of interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, keeping the currency under pressure over a multi-week slide. However, coverage by ExchangeRates reveals that some investment banks still project a recovery toward higher price targets despite the post-RBA selloff, while publishers such as FX Street and Orbex emphasize the pair's immediate attempt to carve out a minor recovery from its session lows.

Broader institutional flow and yield parameters provide further color. As of the week to September 22, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report reveals that speculators added to net short AUD/USD positions, increasing their net short position to -46814 contracts from -38906 contracts in the prior week, with large speculators holding 41.1% long and 58.9% short positions. In the bond market, US Treasury yields ended on September 29 with the 2-year yield at 4.89% (down 3 basis points), the 10-year yield at 5.26% (up 2 basis points), and the 3-month yield at 4.25%, with the 2s10s yield curve at 37 basis points. Meanwhile, news sentiment indicators display a bullish percentage of 66% and a bearish percentage of 34%, showing a media mood score of 100 out of 100, alongside a bearish opportunity score of -26.

Bottom Line

The overriding trend for AUD/USD is firmly pointed downward as the Asian and European sessions align. While the technical structure targets the support at the previous day low of 0.69649 and the S1 level at 0.69564, the upcoming US PCE inflation metrics and labor data will likely decide the next major directional phase. The daily pivot at 0.69921 remains the key line in the sand separating intraday bears from a broader corrective recovery.