AUD/USD Forecast Today: Aussie Holds Near 0.7000 Support

Daily outlook Neutral bias Sep 28, 2026, 06:57 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD remains in a tight 24.2-pip daily range as short-term momentum stays bearish but the daily trend is mixed ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision.

Aussie Holds Steady in Tight Range Ahead of RBA Decision

During the current Asia session, the AUD/USD pair has remained confined to a narrow daily range of 24.2 pips, bound by an intraday high of 0.70278 and a low of 0.70036. The last trade is recorded at 0.70186, reflecting a minor decline of -0.00031 or -0.04% from the previous close of 0.70217. This constrained price action represents 54% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR) of 0.00449, indicating a period of lower volatility than the typical daily movements measured by the ATR indicator.

Technical Landscape: Key Support and Resistance Ahead of the Volatility

The technical structure for AUD/USD displays conflicting signals across timeframes, maintaining a neutral outlook. On the daily chart, the trend is mixed, with the price holding above the daily EMA200 of 0.69653 but below both the daily EMA20 at 0.71061 and the EMA50 at 0.70956. The daily RSI14 stands at 35.3, which indicates soft momentum. In contrast, both the H4 and H1 trends are firmly down, with the H4 EMA20 sitting at 0.70356 and the EMA50 at 0.70723, while the H1 EMA20 is at 0.70207 and the EMA50 is at 0.70274. This disagreement between the mixed daily trend and the downward shorter-term timeframes reinforces the current sideways consolidation.

The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 0.70221, located 3.5 pips above the current spot price. The nearest support is the previous day low at 0.70029, which lies 15.7 pips below the market. These levels are calculated using the classic pivot points formula to identify key intraday turning points. Standard pivot levels frame the potential trading boundaries, with upside resistance targets at R1 at 0.70414, R2 at 0.7061, and R3 at 0.70803. Below the market, support levels are positioned at S1 at 0.70025, S2 at 0.69832, and S3 at 0.69636. Yesterday's high was recorded at 0.70418, with yesterday's close resting at 0.70217.

The 5-day range is defined by a high of 0.71393 and a low of 0.70029. The wider 20-day range is bounded by a high of 0.72369 and a low of 0.70029. Additionally, psychological round numbers exist with resistance above at 0.705 and support below at 0.7.

What is Priced In for Tomorrow's RBA Interest Rate Announcement?

The economic calendar shifts focus to high-impact domestic developments tomorrow. At 04:30 UTC tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its Interest Rate Decision, alongside the release of the RBA Rate Statement and the Monetary Policy Statement. The RBA is estimated to increase the interest rate to 4.6% from the previous rate of 4.35%. This will be followed by the RBA Press Conference at 05:30 UTC tomorrow. Later tomorrow, during the US session, Federal Reserve speaker Musalem is scheduled to deliver a speech at 11:30 UTC.

According to market coverage by FX Street and Forexcom, market participants are watching the 0.7000 area to see whether the key level will hold or face a bearish breakdown ahead of the central bank policy decision tomorrow. This is also reflected in the news sentiment, where the opportunity read is currently bearish at -20, and the overall media mood stands at 44. Bullish coverage accounts for 39% while bearish coverage sits at 61%, with news volume registering at 21% of the 90-day average.

Broader market indicators provide further context for the Australian Dollar outlook. According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the week to September 22, 2026, speculators added to net short AUD/USD, holding a net short AUD/USD position of -46814 contracts. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields at the close of September 25, 2026, show the 3-month yield at 4.24%, the 2-year yield at 4.81% (reflecting a 6-basis-point decline), and the 10-year yield at 5.17% (down 1 basis point).

Bullish Scenario: Rate Hike and Hawkish Tone Drive Recovery

If buying momentum returns, a break above the trigger level R1 at 0.70414 could open the path toward the target level R2 at 0.7061. However, if the market moves back below the daily pivot at 0.70221, it would invalidate this bullish outlook. Traders assessing this pathway can use a risk and reward calculator to evaluate potential technical setups.

Bearish Scenario: Downside Breakout on a Dovish Surprise

On the downside, a break below the S1 trigger level at 0.70025 could target the lower level S2 at 0.69832. This bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price rises back above the daily pivot at 0.70221.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is consolidating within a narrow 24.2-pip daily range as the market waits for domestic policy drivers. Shorter-term trends on the H1 and H4 charts remain down, but the daily trend is mixed and remains above the EMA200 of 0.69653. Tomorrow's high-impact Reserve Bank of Australia announcements present the next major scheduled catalyst to resolve this technical consolidation near the 0.70029 area. For more regular updates and technical breakdowns, you can follow our AUD/USD analysis page.