AUD Trimmed Mean CPI Forecast: AUD/USD Faces Critical Support

Event preview Neutral bias Sep 30, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades at 0.69871 ahead of today's Australian Trimmed Mean CPI release, with the market focusing on the 3.6% core inflation forecast to determine RBA rate expectations.

AUD/USD on Edge Ahead of Crucial Australian Inflation Data

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.69871 as the Asia session gets underway, showing a modest daily gain of 0.05% with a daily open at 0.69798. Today's price action precedes a high-stakes series of macroeconomic releases, starting with Australia's core inflation data scheduled at 01:30 UTC. As reported by Forexcom, the Australian Dollar has been locked in a multi-week slide, dragging the price down near critical support. Commercial bank forecasts cited by ExchangeRates suggest that some institutions still target a level of 0.72 to 0.74, despite a selloff following the latest central bank policy meeting. Meanwhile, Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC as of the week to September 22, 2026, reveals that positioning is in net short AUD/USD terms, as speculators added to net short AUD/USD during that week as net contracts shifted to -46814 from -38906 the prior week.

Why the RBA Focuses on the Trimmed Mean CPI

Understanding why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prioritizes core inflation is crucial for evaluating the current AUD/USD outlook today. This AUD Trimmed Mean CPI preview highlights why the central bank relies on underlying metrics rather than headline inflation. The Trimmed Mean CPI measures the systematic trend in consumer prices by removing the most volatile 15% of price increases and decreases. Unlike the headline CPI, this metric provides a smoother representation of underlying inflation pressures. A report by FX Street notes that a potential RBA interest rate hike could support the exchange rate, whereas TD Securities points to a possible underperformance bias for the Australian Dollar against other regional currencies if policy remains on hold. Traders can monitor these shifting dynamics using the economic calendar as a guide.

Market Expectations for the Core Inflation Release

According to today's schedule, the Australian Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) is expected to come in at 3.6%, which is unchanged from the previous reading of 3.6%. The month-over-month Trimmed Mean CPI is projected to decline to 0.3% from its previous level of 0.5%. When evaluating the AUD/USD AUD Trimmed Mean CPI reaction potential, the details of the broader release are also paramount. The headline Year-over-Year Consumer Price Index is expected to climb to 4% from the previous 3.5%, while the headline MoM CPI is estimated at 0.4%, down from 1% previously. Additional regional data includes Building Permits (MoM) expected at -0.9% versus the previous -3.6%.

Later today, the US session features major data points, including the ADP Employment Change (forecast at 70 versus 38 prior) and Core PCE (expected flat at 3.3%), which could influence the US Dollar side of the pair. This US data comes amid a Treasury market backdrop where, on September 29, 2026, the US 2-year yield closed at 4.89% (down 3 basis points) and the 10-year yield finished at 5.26% (up 2 basis points), with the 3-month yield at 4.25%.

Technical Setup: AUD/USD Tests Key Support Levels

The live AUD/USD rate currently trades at 0.69871, remaining tightly bound today within a 15.3-pip range between a day high of 0.69878 and a day low of 0.69725. This intraday range represents 34% of the pair's 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.00455. The spot price is currently trading just below its daily pivot of 0.69921, which represents the nearest key resistance at 5 pips away. On the daily timeframe, the trend is down, with the price trading below its 20-day EMA at 0.70867 and its 50-day EMA at 0.70882, though it remains above its 200-day EMA at 0.6967. The H4 trend is also down, with the 20-period EMA at 0.70095, while the H1 trend is down with the 20-period EMA at 0.69889.

Over the last 5 days, the pair has declined 1.76%, hitting a 5-day low of 0.69649 and a 5-day high of 0.71174. Over the past 20 days, the pair is down 2.17%, with the 20-day low at 0.69649 and the 20-day high at 0.72369. Yesterday, September 29, 2026, the pair opened at 0.70154, with yesterday's close recorded at 0.69836. The day's high was established at 0.70278 and the low was located at 0.69649. News sentiment metrics show a bullish share of news sentiment of 69% and a bearish share of 31%, with the media mood index at 100 and the overall opportunity reading registered as neutral with a score of -4.

Trading Scenarios: How AUD/USD Might React to the CPI Print

The upcoming inflation data has the potential to trigger significant directional moves based on whether core inflation beats or misses the AUD Trimmed Mean CPI forecast. In a bullish scenario, a decisive break above the R1 resistance trigger at 0.70193 would open the path toward the R2 target at 0.7055, representing a potential trigger-to-target move of 35.7 pips. This positive structure would be invalidated if the price drops back below the daily pivot at 0.69921. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, a break below the S1 support level at 0.69564 could target the S2 support level at 0.69292, which lies 27.2 pips below the trigger. A reversal back above the daily pivot at 0.69921 would negate this bearish view.