USD/JPY Sell stop
USD/JPY chart
Levels
- Entry
- 158.243 zone 158.239 to 158.247
- Stop loss
- 158.370 12.7 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 158.115 not reached
- Target 2
- 157.987 not reached
- Target 3
- 157.859 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 158.370 or sell below 158.243. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Buy stop #62 (closed).
Why this trade
This is a sell stop on USD/JPY at 158.243, generated by a mechanical pre-news breakout rule. The strategy brackets the previous 30-minute range just before a high-impact release—in this case, the Nonfarm Payrolls report. It places a sell order half a 5-minute ATR below the range, with a stop loss on the opposite side at 158.37. While backtesting shows a small theoretical edge for USD/JPY (+0.06R over 537 trades), it assumes perfect fills. NFP usually triggers severe volatility, meaning slippage can heavily impact real-world entry and stop prices. The trade is wrong if price reverses to the upper bracket at 158.37.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 158.307
- Cancelled
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 48
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 52e8b020ceb1cec63165bbdb1b9657e3da2e4b0d47e6cacf12298a017bc1aa00
- Previous hash
- 2b93e4cb8b764a9c2e19f95b024e2f47e81bdd67f845783d3a24c7e05c8d9fcd
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDJPY","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:USDJPY:1793971800","entry":"158.243","zone_lo":"158.239","zone_hi":"158.247","sl":"158.370","tp1":"158.115","tp2":"157.987","tp3":"157.859","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:26:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:30:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"2b93e4cb8b764a9c2e19f95b024e2f47e81bdd67f845783d3a24c7e05c8d9fcd"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
NFP volatility frequently causes whipsaws and slippage, which can easily erase the strategy's minimal theoretical edge.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record