USD/JPY Buy stop
USD/JPY chart
Levels
- Entry
- 158.370 zone 158.366 to 158.374
- Stop loss
- 158.243 12.7 pips from entry; moved to 158.370
- Target 1
- 158.498 hit 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Target 2
- 158.626 not reached
- Target 3
- 158.754 not reached
- Filled
- 158.370 6 Nov, 13:27 UTC
- Closed
- 158.370 6 Nov, 13:34 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 158.370 or sell below 158.243. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Sell stop #63 (cancelled).
Why this trade
This is a buy stop order for USD/JPY at 158.37, driven by a mechanical pre-news breakout rule. Four minutes ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the rule brackets the last 30 minutes' range (158.35 to 158.263) with stop orders placed half a 5-minute ATR outside it. If the payroll data triggers a spike higher, this long entry will execute. USD/JPY is currently in a 4-hour uptrend, sitting between the R1 and R2 pivots. The stop loss at 158.243 acts as the entry for the opposing sell stop order, meaning a volatile whipsaw reaction to the news would stop out the long trade.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 158.308
- Entry filled 158.370
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 50
- TP1 hit 158.498
- Stop moved to entry 158.370
- Trade closed 158.370 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.34R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 2b93e4cb8b764a9c2e19f95b024e2f47e81bdd67f845783d3a24c7e05c8d9fcd
- Previous hash
- 12f53c5c2a1bf12ce29bf5268664bd66aba16d20ecd1927275a25186a3022ab9
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDJPY","side":"buy","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:USDJPY:1793971800","entry":"158.370","zone_lo":"158.366","zone_hi":"158.374","sl":"158.243","tp1":"158.498","tp2":"158.626","tp3":"158.754","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:26:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T16:30:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"12f53c5c2a1bf12ce29bf5268664bd66aba16d20ecd1927275a25186a3022ab9"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
This mechanical news straddle relies entirely on the NFP release causing a clean directional spike, effectively making it a coin flip.
Not enough closed signals scored 50-59 yet (8 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record