Gold (XAU/USD) Buy stop
Gold (XAU/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 4,075.08 zone 4,073.19 to 4,076.97
- Stop loss
- 4,060.47 14.6 dollars from entry
- Target 1
- 4,089.69 not reached
- Target 2
- 4,104.31 not reached
- Target 3
- 4,118.92 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 4,075.08 or sell below 4,060.47. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Sell stop #48 (closed).
Why this trade
This signal uses a mechanical rule called the "Gold hourly breakout," placing stop orders outside the previous hour's extremes when volatility is above its 20-day average. Here, a buy stop waits at 4075.08, just above the prior candle's high, targeting 4089.69. The historical record for this strategy is negative, averaging -0.07R per trade with a 0.82 profit factor over the last year. Furthermore, the daily trend is down and gold is currently hovering near the previous day's low of 4057.74, leaving a bullish breakout without broader momentum support. If triggered, a reversal to 4060.47 will stop the trade out.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Gold hourly breakout
The best of the rules from our October gold scalping study. At the close of each London-hours candle (02:00 to 08:00 New York), when hourly volatility is at or above its 20-day average, a buy stop waits just above the candle's high and a sell stop just below its low for one hour; the first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after two hours at most.
Caveat: Gold only. -0.07R per trade over 165 trades in the last year. The 2023-2026 study on 5-minute gold found this structure close to break-even before costs and slightly negative after them; no hour of the day was reliably positive.
The idea, explained: Gold scalping
Timeline
- Cancelled
- Signal published 4,059.65
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 42
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 303e4cb024c50db1e3a18eb62e67d3fd4b3f17aa1dafcce5c16e22a4eff434b7
- Previous hash
- 4a4dfc437477206d1edc37df1a4d2c7a1269af41df83761f5eeea81c70924907
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"scalp_gold_hour_bo","source":"data","oco_group":"scalp_gold_hour_bo:XAUUSD:1793966400","entry":"4075.08","zone_lo":"4073.19","zone_hi":"4076.97","sl":"4060.47","tp1":"4089.69","tp2":"4104.31","tp3":"4118.92","created_at":"2026-11-06T12:01:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T15:00:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"4a4dfc437477206d1edc37df1a4d2c7a1269af41df83761f5eeea81c70924907"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
Scalping trade: moves are quick, and the spread takes a bigger share of a small stop.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy's tested record shows a negative expected return, and the broader daily downtrend does not support a bullish intraday breakout.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record