EUR/USD Sell stop
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11680 zone 1.11675 to 1.11684
- Stop loss
- 1.11812 13.2 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.11547 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.11414 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.11282 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 1.11812 or sell below 1.11680. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Buy stop #35 (expired).
Why this trade
This is a mechanical pre-news breakout trade. The rule places stop orders just outside the past 30 minutes' price range (1.11791 to 1.11701) before the Retail Sales release at 10:00 UTC, anticipating a sharp directional move. A sell stop is set at 1.1168, targeting 1.11547 and beyond. Currently, EUR/USD is in a daily downtrend but has already moved 104% of its average daily range (64 pips) and is testing support at S2 (1.11643). The trade is stopped out at 1.11812, which serves as the opposite side of the bracket, if the news triggers a false breakdown and reverses.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 1.11721
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 42
- Expired
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- b16dc8ec4c6de7fe6e10f87e9f3db841efe77438050aa0805f22977e95a5698d
- Previous hash
- 1d6c86b4689eb4dcf36a3f6fe1e5bdf38e011ef43fbb24e371a57e2b885976f6
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:EURUSD:1793959200","entry":"1.11680","zone_lo":"1.11675","zone_hi":"1.11684","sl":"1.11812","tp1":"1.11547","tp2":"1.11414","tp3":"1.11282","created_at":"2026-11-06T09:56:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T10:30:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T13:00:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"1d6c86b4689eb4dcf36a3f6fe1e5bdf38e011ef43fbb24e371a57e2b885976f6"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Retail Sales (YoY) on 6 Nov at 10:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a negative tested record for EUR/USD, and the pair has already exhausted its average daily range before the release.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record