WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Sell limit
WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 90.374 zone 90.291 to 90.457
- Stop loss
- 90.790 0.4 dollars from entry; moved to 90.374
- Target 1
- 89.958 hit 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Target 2
- 89.541 not reached
- Target 3
- 89.125 not reached
- Filled
- 90.374 6 Nov, 13:30 UTC
- Closed
- 90.374 6 Nov, 13:43 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical SMC fair value gap sell: a 1-hour bearish gap from 90.201 to 90.547, about 0.42 of the hourly ATR, with a limit at the midpoint 90.374. The rule wants the 4-hour 50 EMA falling; that trend is down, and WTI is off about 12.7% in five days. The same rule lost money from 2023 to 2026 (profit factor 0.67) and was never tested on WTI. Price is already 89.107, below all three targets, so the limit needs a rally into the gap first. It is wrong if price reaches the stop at 90.79, just above the gap and still inside today's high.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC fair value gap
Fair value gaps are the core of the ICT / Smart Money Concepts style, the most actively maintained family in our libraries (for example the FVG Gold EA and ICT Gold EA, both updated in 2025-26). On 1-hour bars, a bullish gap is a candle whose low sits above the high from two candles earlier, at least 0.3 ATR tall, while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising: a buy limit waits at the middle of the gap for 6 hours, with the stop just under the gap. Bearish gaps mirror it. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested. Hourly bars cannot show whether a target was touched before the limit filled, so the test gave no credit for that; the true figure may be a little better. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Fair value gaps
Timeline
- Signal published 89.109
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 34
- Entry filled 90.374
- TP1 hit 89.958
- Stop moved to entry 90.374
- Trade closed 90.374 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.33R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 66f2cc62521563abf1d9d2ead6cc1d2a404f6623f519a2aede7dee7d962c1503
- Previous hash
- a952ab82d5a6c666174311cb3cee616faa2aaa96219623be89630fbce0e5dc43
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XTIUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_fvg_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"90.374","zone_lo":"90.291","zone_hi":"90.457","sl":"90.790","tp1":"89.958","tp2":"89.541","tp3":"89.125","created_at":"2026-11-06T09:01:04Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T17:25:04Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T12:37:04Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"a952ab82d5a6c666174311cb3cee616faa2aaa96219623be89630fbce0e5dc43"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) on 6 Nov at 13:30 UTC.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 12% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
Losing FVG record, untested on WTI, and price already sits below every target.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record