Gold (XAU/USD) Sell stop
Gold (XAU/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 4,039.70 zone 4,037.62 to 4,041.78
- Stop loss
- 4,059.36 19.7 dollars from entry
- Target 1
- 4,020.04 not reached
- Target 2
- 4,000.38 not reached
- Target 3
- 3,980.71 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 4,059.36 or sell below 4,039.70. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Buy stop #22 (closed).
Why this trade
This trade is a mechanical signal from the "Gold hourly breakout" strategy. The rule places a sell stop just below the last London-hour candle's low of 4041.78 and a stop loss above its high at 4059.36, provided hourly volatility is above average. If triggered at 4039.7, the initial target is 4020.04, sitting above the S2 support level of 4008.74. Traders should note that this specific breakout structure on Gold has a negative tested record over the last year, often struggling to reach targets before reversing to the stop.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Gold hourly breakout
The best of the rules from our October gold scalping study. At the close of each London-hours candle (02:00 to 08:00 New York), when hourly volatility is at or above its 20-day average, a buy stop waits just above the candle's high and a sell stop just below its low for one hour; the first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after two hours at most.
Caveat: Gold only. -0.07R per trade over 165 trades in the last year. The 2023-2026 study on 5-minute gold found this structure close to break-even before costs and slightly negative after them; no hour of the day was reliably positive.
The idea, explained: Gold scalping
Timeline
- Signal published 4,053.00
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 42
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 40
- Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
- Cancelled
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 3935d54354effaf77cc7dd23ec93bbee6f901ec2e09f2a6d1bfe42da5dca5fb7
- Previous hash
- 7c24318932d02617cd439c52e1a5447823ad8ecca5ce07314ec850d3fb760cbe
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"scalp_gold_hour_bo","source":"data","oco_group":"scalp_gold_hour_bo:XAUUSD:1793952000","entry":"4039.70","zone_lo":"4037.62","zone_hi":"4041.78","sl":"4059.36","tp1":"4020.04","tp2":"4000.38","tp3":"3980.71","created_at":"2026-11-06T08:01:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T09:00:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T11:00:00Z","prev_hash":"7c24318932d02617cd439c52e1a5447823ad8ecca5ce07314ec850d3fb760cbe"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
Scalping trade: moves are quick, and the spread takes a bigger share of a small stop.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.
Confidence
The strategy's tested record shows consistent underperformance, suggesting a low probability of reaching the target before the stop.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record