WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Sell at market signal #2

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.

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Levels

Entry: 90.571 zone 90.401 to 90.741
Stop loss: 93.114 2.5 dollars from entry
Target 1: 88.028 not reached
Target 2: 85.485 not reached
Target 3: 82.942 not reached
Filled: 90.531 6 Nov, 05:02 UTC
Closed: 89.138 6 Nov, 09:01 UTC

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Why this trade

This is a market sell on WTI Crude Oil at 90.571. It is a mechanical signal following Larry Connors' RSI(2) pullback rule, which sells when the 4-hour RSI(2) rises above 90 (currently 95.7) while price remains below its 200-bar SMA (94.34). WTI is in a steep near-term downtrend, having dropped 11% over the last five days. The 4-hour trend remains down, making this a classic trend-continuation setup after a sharp minor bounce. The trade is proven wrong if price reaches the stop loss at 93.114, placed just below the daily R2 resistance level of 93.17.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: RSI(2) pullback

RSI strategies are the third most starred family in our Pine library (179 scripts, 4,691 stars); this is Larry Connors' RSI(2). On 4-hour bars, buy at market when RSI 2 drops under 10 while price is above its 200 SMA, and sell when RSI 2 rises above 90 below the 200 SMA. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes when price crosses back over the 5 SMA, or after 10 bars.

Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Close to break-even before costs but slightly negative after them; positive on 1 of 11 instruments. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.

The idea, explained: The RSI indicator

Timeline

6 Nov, 05:01 UTC Signal published 90.571
6 Nov, 05:01 UTC Reason added
6 Nov, 05:01 UTC Confidence scored Score 46
6 Nov, 05:02 UTC Entry filled 90.531
6 Nov, 08:14 UTC Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
6 Nov, 09:01 UTC Trade closed 89.138 Strategy exit, +0.55R

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash: 3569d9b3d18d0e2c200d0c494b57903b837f182a52df9f7d62a2198802d84ecf
Previous hash: 14ed8e1586268298a81b5630d88fb752d974973bf693791f17aef1263a49335c

Show the signed record

{"v":1,"symbol":"XTIUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"4h","strategy":"pop_rsi2_4h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"90.571","zone_lo":"90.401","zone_hi":"90.741","sl":"93.114","tp1":"88.028","tp2":"85.485","tp3":"82.942","created_at":"2026-11-06T05:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T05:16:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-08T13:16:01Z","prev_hash":"14ed8e1586268298a81b5630d88fb752d974973bf693791f17aef1263a49335c"}

Risk High Risk

Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
Type of trading: passed
Swing trade, not a scalping or news trade.
News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.

Confidence

The strategy has a negative historical record, though selling a short-term overbought bounce within a clear 4-hour downtrend is technically sound.

Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record