Why Is WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Moving Lower?

Market news Neutral bias Sep 25, 2026, 07:48 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil drops 1.48% on the day to trade at 92.585 during the London session, as market participants digest US-Iran diplomatic discussions and rising Saudi oil exports.

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is trading lower at 92.585 during the London session, down 1.48% on the day. While the daily technical trend remains structurally up, mixed hourly signals keep our near-term outlook neutral, with the daily pivot at 93.507 standing as the pivotal hurdle for any potential recovery.

Supply Themes and News Sentiment in the Oil Market

Geopolitical and supply themes are prominent in the news today, as Bloomberg Markets and Finance reports that the United States and Iran are exploring a diplomatic agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In tandem, the same publisher reports that Saudi oil exports have reached elevated levels. Although these supply-side and diplomatic topics are driving today's market commentary, we emphasize that such reports are current discussion points rather than demonstrated drivers of the day's price movement.

Our news sentiment analysis indicates that the media mood is currently at 100 out of 100, with a coverage split of 67% bullish and 33% bearish sentiment, while the independent opportunity read score stands at -20, signaling a bearish opportunity environment. This suggests that while overall media coverage maintains a positive tone, specific tactical opportunities are leaning bearish.

Technical Analysis and Key Pivot Levels

With WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) currently trading at 92.585, the current bid is 92.585 and the ask is 92.625, maintaining a tight spread of 0.04 dollars. Real-time changes from the previous close of 93.978 can be monitored on our live WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) rate page. The commodity opened today at 93.768, subsequently reaching a day high of 93.781 and registering a day low of 91.464.

Today's intraday price range of 2.32 dollars represents approximately 57% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR) of 4.04 dollars, which can be tracked alongside other volatility metrics using the ATR indicator. From a structural standpoint, the daily trend remains classified as up, with the spot price trading above its daily EMA 200 of 79.037. The daily EMA 20 is currently at 92.223, the daily EMA 50 is at 88.121, and the daily RSI stands at 55.3. However, the H4 trend is currently mixed, with the H4 EMA 20 at 92.523 and the H4 EMA 50 at 93.388. The H1 trend is also mixed, with its EMA 20 at 92.653 and its EMA 50 at 92.316. Because of these conflicting trend signals across timeframes, our near-term directional bias is neutral.

Technical traders are focusing on the nearest resistance at the daily pivot of 93.507, which is 0.92 dollars above the current spot rate. On the downside, the nearest support level is S1 at 91.107, located 1.48 dollars below the current price. Yesterday's high was 95.908, while yesterday's low was 90.636. Over the last five days, the price has fluctuated between a high of 97.993 and a low of 88.295. Over a broader 20-day horizon, the market has recorded a high of 102.135 and a low of 81.766.

Conditional Scenarios and Key US Macro Risk Events

In terms of conditional pathways, a bullish scenario would be triggered by a sustained break above R1 at 96.379, which would open the path toward R2 at 98.779, whereas a move back below the daily pivot at 93.507 would invalidate that perspective. On the other hand, a bearish scenario would open up on a drop below S1 at 91.107, targeting S2 at 88.235, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 93.507 would invalidate the bearish view. For the bearish scenario, the potential move from the S1 trigger of 91.107 to the S2 target of 88.235 is 2.87 dollars, which can be mapped out alongside stops using our risk and reward calculator.

To add broader market context, at the daily close on September 24, the US 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.87%, up 2 basis points, while the 10-year yield finished at 5.18%, up 7 basis points. Additionally, Commitments of Traders data for the week to September 15 shows that speculators hold a net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) position of 135905 contracts, after speculators reduced net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) exposure by 674 contracts.

Looking ahead to the rest of today's economic calendar, several US macro events are scheduled to release. At 09:15 UTC today, Fed's Williams is scheduled to speak. This will be followed at 12:30 UTC today by a block of US manufacturing data, including Durable Goods Orders (estimated at -0.4% compared to the previous 1.1%), Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (estimated at 0.6% versus the previous 0.4%), Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (estimated at 0.5% versus the previous 0.2%), and Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (which was previously 1.3%). Later today at 14:00 UTC, the University of Michigan will release its Consumer Sentiment Index (estimated at 47.6 compared to the previous 47.8), UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation (estimated at 3.4% versus the previous 3.4%), Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (previously 45.8), and UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (estimated at 4.6% versus the previous 4.6%). Finally, today's session wraps up with the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count at 17:00 UTC (estimated at 453 against the previous 452) and a speech from Fed's Hammack today at 18:00 UTC.