WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Forecast Today: Pivots in Focus

Daily outlook Neutral bias Sep 24, 2026, 12:36 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI crude oil trades around 93.104 with conflicting daily and H4 trends. Watch R1 resistance at 93.669 and yesterday's high support at 92.506 during the overlap session.

WTI Crude Oil Rebounds: Where XTI/USD Stands Now

During the London and New York overlap, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is trading at 93.104, reflecting a daily increase of 0.959 or 1.04%. Today's price action has charted an intraday range between a low of 90.636 and a high of 93.976. This day range of 3.34 dollars represents 85% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR) of 3.94 dollars, showing that volatility is operating near its standard parameters. Volatility continues to shape intraday activity as market participants digest shifting demand expectations.

Technical Outlook: Mixed Timeframes and Trend Analysis

The technical structure for WTI Crude Oil shows a divergence across key timeframes, leading us to adopt a neutral bias. The daily trend remains up, with the price currently trading above its 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 78.864, its 50-day EMA of 87.881, and its 20-day EMA of 92.038. The hourly (H1) trend also shows an upward stance, supported by the 20-period EMA of 91.909 crossing above the 50-period EMA of 91.541. However, the four-hour (H4) chart shows a mixed trend state, with its 20-period EMA at 92.068 and its 50-period EMA at 93.356, preventing full alignment across different intervals. Meanwhile, the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 52.4, which signals a relatively neutral momentum profile without overbought or oversold extremes.

Key Pivot Levels and Daily Ranges

A closer look at the local environment highlights immediate hurdles and floors for the commodity. The closest resistance lies at R1 of 93.669, located 0.56 dollars above the current price. Conversely, the closest support is marked by yesterday's high at 92.506, situated 0.6 dollars below our current trade level. The central daily pivot point is calculated at 90.982. Above this mark, resistance levels are structured at R1 at 93.669, R2 at 95.193, and R3 at 97.88. Below the central pivot, support lines sit at S1 at 89.458, S2 at 86.771, and S3 at 85.247. For further educational insight into calculating these levels, visit our pivot point calculator.

Wider boundaries also present key points of reference. Over the past 5 trading days, the range has been defined by a high of 97.993 and a low of 88.295. Looking back over a broader 20-day span, the extremes are established with a high of 102.135 and a low of 80.23. Additionally, psychological barriers around the major round numbers of 93.000 below and 93.500 above remain active focal points for intraday price behavior.

Trading Scenarios: Rejections vs. Breakouts

Depending on how the market reacts to these local boundaries, two potential directional paths could emerge:

• Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above the trigger resistance of R1 at 93.669 would open the way to target R2 at 95.193. Under this view, a drop below the daily pivot of 90.982 would invalidate the bullish projection.
• Bearish Scenario: Alternatively, a break below the support trigger of S1 at 89.458 could encourage further downside targeting S2 at 86.771. This outlook would be invalidated if the price moves back above the daily pivot at 90.982.

Macro Drivers: Scheduled Releases, Newsflow, and Yields

Today's economic calendar features several US updates, including speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers Hammack at 12:50 UTC and Paulson at 13:00 UTC, followed by the New Home Sales Change (MoM) release at 14:00 UTC, which historically stood at -10.5. Looking ahead to tomorrow, market participants will monitor Fed official Williams' speech at 09:15 UTC. This is followed at 12:30 UTC tomorrow by a batch of Durable Goods data, including the core Durable Goods Orders (estimate of -0.4 versus 1.1 previous) and Durable Goods ex Transportation (estimate of 0.6 versus 0.4 previous). Tomorrow afternoon at 14:00 UTC brings the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (estimate 47.6 versus 47.8 previous) alongside the UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (estimate 4.6% matching 4.6% previous). Later tomorrow, the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is scheduled at 17:00 UTC with an estimate of 453 compared to 452 previously, before Hammack speaks again at 18:00 UTC. To track these events in real-time, you can consult our economic calendar guide.

Underpinning the daily focus is the general newsflow. Headlines from Reuters, WSJ, and FXEmpire have noted that crude oil prices faced headwinds amid diplomatic developments between the US and Iran and potential pipeline restarts. Furthermore, CNBC has reported on substantial crude import volumes expected in Asia, while US legislative discussions reported by Reuters highlighted calls to release emergency heating oil to counter surging prices.

From a positioning standpoint, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the report date on September 15 showed that large speculators held a net long position of 135905 contracts in WTI Crude Oil (CL). Speculators held 61.2% long positions versus 38.8% short positions, which shows that speculators reduced net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) by 674 contracts compared to the previous week's net contracts of 136579. Additionally, at the US close on September 23, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.85% (up 14 basis points) and the 10-year yield sat at 5.11% (up 15 basis points), while the 3-month yield recorded 4.19%.

Finally, our independent news sentiment indicators present an opportunity read of 51, marked as bullish. The media mood has reached 100 out of 100, rising from the previous day's reading of 96, against a daily news volume running at 123% of its 90-day average. The overall tone of news coverage shows a split of 54% bullish and 46% bearish sentiment.

Bottom Line for the Session

As the overlap session progresses, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) remains locked in a battle between short-term upward pressure and a mixed medium-term trend. Maintaining a foothold above the previous day high of 92.506 is crucial for buyers attempting to mount another test of R1 at 93.669. Conversely, failing to preserve these gains could quickly shift focus back down toward the daily pivot at 90.982, maintaining the neutral status quo.