USD ISM Services PMI Preview: Market Setup and History

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 5, 2026, 04:10 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

The US ISM Services PMI print is scheduled for today at 14:00 UTC. We evaluate the nearest support and resistance levels, recent positioning data, and past market reactions for major currency pairs, gold, and equities.

US ISM Services PMI in Focus as Market Volatility Stirs

The US ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release today at 14:00 UTC. The estimate sits at 55.7, an increase from the previous reading of 55.4. Tomorrow at 09:00 UTC, the market will also see EMU Retail Sales (YoY). Past behaviour is not a forecast of this release.

EUR/USD and USD/JPY Technical Outlook Ahead of the Release

Trading during the Asia session, with London opening next at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD sits between S3 (1.11557) and S2 (1.11879). Nearest resistance lies at S2 (1.11879) and support at S3 (1.11557), with the daily pivot above at 1.12525. The pair's day range accounts for 181% of its 55.3-pip ATR. Over the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 5.8 pips. Following the 7 results above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later 3 times and lower 4 times; after the 3 results below the estimate, it closed higher 2 times and lower 1 time. A move of the typical 1h size from here reaches up to 1.11696 and down to 1.1158.

USD/JPY is positioned between the daily pivot (157.656) and R1 (158.383). Nearest resistance is at the previous day high (158.199) and support at the daily pivot (157.656). The pair has consumed 54% of its 127.7-pip ATR today. Following the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was 5.1 pips. After the 7 releases above the estimate, USD/JPY closed higher an hour later 2 times and lower 5 times, while after the 3 below the estimate, it closed higher 1 time and lower 2 times. A typical move from current levels reaches up to 158.131 and down to 158.029.

Gold and Nasdaq 100 Setup Ahead of the Release

Gold (XAU/USD) trades between S1 (4099.37) and the daily pivot (4162.94). The nearest resistance is at the daily pivot (4162.94) and support at the previous day low (4125.08). The metal has covered 33% of its $91.24 ATR today. Over the last 11 releases, the typical move an hour later was $10.65. After the 7 results above the estimate, Gold closed higher an hour later 4 times and lower 3 times; after the 3 below the estimate, it closed higher 3 times and lower 0 times. A move of the typical size from here lands at 4154 to the upside and 4132.7 to the downside.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) sits between the daily pivot (30769.4) and R1 (31037.7). Resistance is nearest at the previous day high (31017.1) and support at the daily pivot (30769.4). The index has reached 32% of its 461.68-point ATR today. The last 11 releases produced a typical move of 63.9 points an hour later. Following the 7 prints above the estimate, the index closed higher an hour later 5 times and lower 2 times, and after the 3 below the estimate, it closed higher 1 time and lower 2 times. A move of the typical size from the current price reaches up to 30889.5 and down to 30761.7, with the move down crossing the daily pivot at 30769.4.

Scenarios and Market Context

For EUR/USD, a break above R1 at 1.12849 would open the way to R2 at 1.13171, while a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12525 would invalidate this view. Conversely, a push beneath S3 at 1.11557 would clear the path to the next round number at 1.115, a scenario negated if price rises back above the daily pivot at 1.12525. On USD/JPY, moving past R1 at 158.383 would open the way to R2 at 158.925, an outlook invalidated by a drop below the daily pivot at 157.656. A break below S1 at 157.114 would open the way to S2 at 156.387; a move back above the daily pivot at 157.656 would invalidate it.

In the commodities space, a rally through R1 at 4200.8 for Gold would open the way to R2 at 4264.37, invalidated by a decline below the daily pivot at 4162.94. A break below S1 at 4099.37 would open the way to S2 at 4061.51, sidelined if price moves back above the daily pivot at 4162.94. For the Nasdaq 100, stepping above R1 at 31037.7 would open the way to R2 at 31285.4, halted if price moves back below the daily pivot at 30769.4. A break below S1 at 30521.7 would open the way to S2 at 30253.4; a move back above the daily pivot at 30769.4 would invalidate it.

Turning to market positioning as of the week to September 29, speculators added to net short EUR/USD and reduced net short USD/JPY. In risk assets, speculators reduced net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) and reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD). As context from the bond market, the 2-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.83% at the October 2 close, up 5 basis points, alongside the 10-year yield at 5.28%. Recent headlines from FX Street, FXEmpire, and Forexcom highlight downward pressure on major currency pairs and shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rates.

Bottom Line

Today's US ISM Services PMI release is scheduled for 14:00 UTC, carrying an estimate of 55.7. The nearest levels to current price action are support at S3 (1.11557) for EUR/USD, resistance at the previous day high (158.199) for USD/JPY, resistance at the daily pivot (4162.94) for Gold, and resistance at the previous day high (31017.1) for the Nasdaq 100.