What are the most important events on the forex calendar this week?

The ISM Services PMI tomorrow at 14:00 UTC, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday are the key high-impact releases.

How could the upcoming ECB accounts affect the Euro?

The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday are scheduled to test the Euro's resilience.

Forex Weekly Forecast: Euro Resilience Tested by ISM Services PMI

Q: What is the current technical outlook for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD closed at 1.12571 between the daily pivot at 1.12525 and R1 at 1.12849 with a daily down trend.

Q: Where did US Treasury yields close last week?

The 2-year yield closed at 4.83% on October 2 up 5 basis points. The 10-year yield was at 5.28% up 4 basis points.

Week ahead Neutral bias Oct 4, 2026, 21:25 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

Major instruments closed mixed last week with EUR/USD down 1.17% over five days. The forex calendar this week features high-impact US and Eurozone releases starting tomorrow with ISM Services PMI.

assorted currency bills on plaster and wooden table .

Instrument	Last	Day change	Pivot	Daily trend
EUR/USD	1.12571	+0.04%	1.12525	Down
Gold (XAU/USD)	4,139.28	-0.91%	4,163.62	Down
GBP/USD	1.32342	-0.05%	1.32254	Down
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)	86,019.21	+0.25%	85,389.34	Up
USD/JPY	157.578	-0.17%	157.656	Mixed
AUD/USD	0.69510	-0.07%	0.69474	Down
USD/CAD	1.42482	+0.00%	1.42368	Up
Ethereum (ETH/USD)	2,707.06	+0.75%	2,680.87	Up
Nasdaq 100 (US100)	30,790.0	+0.95%	30,769.4	Up
WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD)	90.334	-1.71%	90.007	Mixed
Data as of 2026-10-04 21:15 UTC.

Majors Navigate Shifting Central Bank Expectations

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.12571 after a 0.04% daily gain. The daily trend was down and the 5-day change stood at -1.17%. GBP/USD finished at 1.32342 down 0.05% on the day and 0.07% over five days.

AUD/USD ended at 0.6951 after a 0.07% daily drop and 1.01% over the week. USDCAD rose 0.77% over five days to 1.42482. Gold fell 0.91% to 4139.28 with a daily down trend.

Bitcoin gained 2.87% to 86019.21 over the week. Ethereum rose 0.73% to 2707.06. The daily trend for most pairs was mixed or down. USD/JPY finished at 157.578 down 0.17% on the day and up 0.2% over five days. Nasdaq 100 closed at 30790 up 0.95% on the day and up 0.49% over five days. WTI Crude Oil finished at 90.334 down 1.71% on the day and down 1.29% over five days.

Forex Calendar This Week: Key Economic Indicators to Watch

Tomorrow at 14:00 UTC the US ISM Services PMI is due with previous 55.4 and estimate 55.7. On Tuesday at 09:00 UTC Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) is scheduled with previous 0.6. Wednesday at 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes from the US are released.

Thursday at 11:30 UTC ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for EMU are due. Friday at 12:30 UTC the Canadian Unemployment Rate with previous 6.4 and estimate 6.5 is out. Also on Friday at 14:00 UTC the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index with previous and estimate 48.1 is due.

Euro in Focus: Eurozone Retail Sales and ECB Accounts

EUR/USD trades between the daily pivot at 1.12525 and R1 at 1.12849. The levels to watch are the daily pivot at 1.12525, R1 at 1.12849 and S1 at 1.12203. USDCAD sits between the daily pivot at 1.42368 and R1 at 1.42725.

The instruments most exposed to the calendar releases are EUR/USD for Eurozone data and US data releases for USD pairs. GBP/USD sits between the daily pivot at 1.32254 and R1 at 1.327. Nasdaq 100 sits between the daily pivot at 30769.4 and R1 at 31037.7.

Technical Outlook: Crucial Support and Resistance Zones for the Week Ahead

GBP/USD is between the daily pivot at 1.32254 and R1 at 1.327 with daily trend down. The levels to watch include the pivot at 1.32254, R1 at 1.327 and S1 at 1.31955. Gold trades between S1 at 4100.74 and the daily pivot at 4163.62.

Bitcoin is above R1 at 86274.96. The daily trend for Bitcoin was up. USDCAD shows daily up trend with price between the daily pivot at 1.42368 and R1 at 1.42725. USD/JPY trades between S1 at 157.114 and the daily pivot at 157.656. Nasdaq 100 shows daily up trend with price between the daily pivot at 30769.4 and R1 at 31037.7. WTI Crude Oil trades between the daily pivot at 90.007 and R1 at 92.648.

Newsflow at Theme Level

As reported by FX Street, silver dropped 6.5% this week. ExchangeRates reports that Rabobank has lowered its 12-month EUR/USD projection to 1.12.

Speculators added to net short EUR/USD as of the week to September 29. They added to net long USD/CAD on the same date. The US 2-year yield closed at 4.83% on October 2 up 5 basis points. The 10-year yield finished at 5.28% up 4 basis points on October 2.

Bottom Line

The week ahead features high-impact US and Eurozone data with ISM Services PMI tomorrow and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts on Thursday in focus. EUR/USD and related pairs are positioned between the daily pivot at 1.12525 and R1 at 1.12849.