USD/CAD Forecast Today Stays Neutral Near the Low

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 22, 2026, 08:31 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is neutral in London at 1.40136, down 0.22% and next to the day low at 1.40135. H4 and H1 are down against a mixed daily trend, with S2 at 1.40112 nearest support.

Where USD/CAD stands in London

USD/CAD is neutral in the London session, last at 1.40136 and sitting between support at S2 at 1.40112 and resistance at S1 at 1.40282. The live USD/CAD rate is down 0.00316, or 0.22%, from the previous close at 1.40452, beside the day low at 1.40135. The day open is 1.40438, the day high is 1.40482 and the day low is 1.40135, with the spread at 2.3 pips. New York joins at 12:00 UTC.

Today's range is 34.7 pips, equal to 54% of the 14-day ATR at 64.6 pips, or 0.00646. Yesterday's October 21 bar covered 43.3 pips, from a high at 1.40808 to a low at 1.40375, and yesterday's close was 1.40452.

Trend and momentum do not agree

The daily trend is mixed. Price holds above the daily 200-period EMA at 1.39224, while it trades below the daily 20-period EMA at 1.41387 and below the daily 50-period EMA at 1.40728. Daily RSI is 41.3.

The four-hour trend is down, with the H4 20-period EMA at 1.40713 and the H4 50-period EMA at 1.41262. The one-hour trend is down as well, with the H1 20-period EMA at 1.40392 and the H1 50-period EMA at 1.40564. Both of those shorter averages sit above the last price.

Four-hour and one-hour states agree. The daily state does not, so the conflict leaves the bias neutral. Over five days the pair is down 1.56%, and over twenty days it is down 0.61%.

Levels around this London price

Nearest support is S2 at 1.40112, 2.4 pips under the last price, and nearest resistance is S1 at 1.40282, 14.6 pips above it. Price is already below S1, which is why S1 is resistance on this print.

The daily pivot stands at 1.40545, above the last price. Pivot resistance is R1 at 1.40715, R2 at 1.40978 and R3 at 1.41148, while S3 is at 1.39849, past S2. On these pivot-point levels, the daily pivot is the invalidation for both paths and is not a trigger.

The previous day high is at 1.40808 and the previous day low is at 1.40375. The previous day high sits between R1 at 1.40715 and R2 at 1.40978, and the previous day low sits between S1 at 1.40282 and the daily pivot at 1.40545.

The five-day high is at 1.4238 and the five-day low is at 1.40313, with the last price under that five-day low. The twenty-day high is at 1.42989 and the twenty-day low is at 1.40313, with the last price under that twenty-day low too.

The round level below is 1.4 and the round level above is 1.405. The 1.4 figure lies between S3 at 1.39849 and S2 at 1.40112, and the 1.405 figure lies under the daily pivot at 1.40545.

Bearish scenario and bullish scenario

A break below S2 at 1.40112 would open the way to S3 at 1.39849, a 26.3 pip span from trigger to target. The day low at 1.40135 remains above S2, so that bearish trigger is still outside today's range. Returning above the daily pivot at 1.40545 would invalidate the bearish path.

Upside on this map does not begin with a break of S1. A break above R1 at 1.40715 would open the way to R2 at 1.40978, again 26.3 pips from trigger to target. After any such break, a move back below the daily pivot at 1.40545 would invalidate the bullish path. A push through S1 at 1.40282 would still leave the daily pivot at 1.40545 and R1 at 1.40715 overhead.

What is scheduled around the pair

Today's release is US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, a medium-impact item, with a previous reading of 199 and an estimate of 200. The time sits after New York joins at 12:00 UTC.

Tomorrow brings Canadian retail sales and retail sales excluding autos, both at 12:30 UTC and both medium impact. Retail sales carry a previous reading of -0.7 and an estimate of 1.3. The ex-autos series carries a previous reading of -0.7 and an estimate of 1. The economic calendar keeps claims today and both sales figures tomorrow, and the estimates are not a call on the pair.

Reports from FX Street, InvestingCube, FXEmpire, ExchangeRates and Action Forex cluster around USD/CAD forecasts and a firmer Canadian dollar. That newsflow may color the London session, as reported by those publishers, without proving the cause of the day's decline.

News sentiment shows an opportunity read of -4, marked neutral, with news volume at 101% of the 90-day average. The same read is flagged as having moved from -4, neutral, to 33, bullish, inside 24 hours, and neither score is a forecast or a level confirmation.

As of the week to October 13, large speculators were net long USD/CAD in pair terms. Speculators added to that net long USD/CAD over the week, a delayed positioning snapshot rather than a reason price will move.

Treasury yields are the October 21 close, versus October 20, and they are context only. The 2-year yield was at 4.81%, up 2 basis points, the 10-year yield was at 5.13%, up 1 basis point, the 3-month yield was at 4.25%, and the 2s10s curve was at 32 basis points.

Bottom line

USD/CAD is neutral at 1.40136 in London, down 0.22% and beside the day low at 1.40135, with nearest support at S2 at 1.40112 and nearest resistance at S1 at 1.40282. H4 and H1 are down while the daily trend is mixed: a break below S2 at 1.40112 would open S3 at 1.39849 unless price gets back above the daily pivot at 1.40545, and a break above R1 at 1.40715 would open R2 at 1.40978. Claims are set for 12:30 UTC today, and Canadian retail sales are set for 12:30 UTC tomorrow.