What is the CAD Consumer Price Index forecast for today?

The headline year-on-year CPI is estimated at 3.2%, up from 3% previously, and the monthly headline is estimated at 0.2% against -0.1% last month. The Bank of Canada's core year-on-year reading carries no consensus estimate and follows a previous 2.4%, while core month-on-month also has no estimate against a prior 0.1%. All four figures are due at 12:30 UTC today.

How could Canadian CPI move USD/CAD?

Over the last 11 releases of this report, the typical move in USD/CAD was 11.9 pips in the hour after and 11.5 pips four hours after, with the largest one-hour move at 38 pips on September 14, 2026. That is a record of past behavior, not a forecast for today's release.

What is the difference between headline CPI and BoC core CPI?

Today's calendar carries both: the headline year-on-year CPI, estimated at 3.2% versus 3% previously, and the Bank of Canada's core CPI year-on-year, which has no consensus estimate against a previous 2.4%. Monthly readings are due at the same time, with the headline estimated at 0.2% and the core measure's previous reading at 0.1%.

When is the Canadian CPI release and what comes after it?

The release is due at 12:30 UTC today. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey follows at 14:30 UTC today, and tomorrow brings US data including Building Permits and Housing Starts at 12:30 UTC.

Canada CPI Forecast Today: USD/CAD Hovers Near Support

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 19, 2026, 08:27 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is pinned between S2 at 1.40918 and S1 at 1.41147 heading into today's high-impact Canadian CPI at 12:30 UTC, with trend signals mixed across timeframes.

Mid adult worker operating a CNC machine while working in industrial facility

Price1.40923

Day change-0.32%

Day range1.40871 - 1.41324

ATR (14)0.00651

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.42437	S1	1.41147
R2	1.42208	S2	1.40918
R1	1.41792	S3	1.40502
Previous day high	1.41979	Previous day low	1.41334
20-day high	1.42989	20-day low	1.39780
Daily pivot 1.41563. Data as of 2026-10-19 08:22 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.41563, R1 1.41792, R2 1.42208, S1 1.41147, S2 1.40918 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/CAD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-19 08:22 UTC.

Why Canadian CPI Is Today's Focus for USD/CAD

Canada's Consumer Price Index crosses the wires at 12:30 UTC today. The headline year-on-year rate is forecast to pick up to 3.2% from 3% previously, the reading carrying the high-impact tag on the calendar. The month-on-month headline is estimated at 0.2%, a turn from last month's -0.1%.

The Bank of Canada's core measures land in the same release. The core year-on-year figure carries no consensus estimate and follows a previous reading of 2.4%, while the core month-on-month print also has no estimate, against a prior 0.1%. By the time the numbers land, New York will already have joined the session, which opens at 12:00 UTC.

Where USD/CAD Sits Going In

In early London trade, USD/CAD trades at 1.40923, down 0.32% on the day against the previous close. Price is pinned between support at S2, 1.40918, just 0.5 pips below, and resistance at S1, 1.41147, 22.4 pips above, sitting inside the day's pivot point ladder below the daily pivot at 1.41563. The pair also sits just under the 1.41 round number overhead, with 1.405 the next round figure below.

Today's range has run from a low of 1.40871 to a high of 1.41324, a span of 45.3 pips, about 70% of the 14-day average true range of 65.1 pips. Yesterday's session, October 16, posted an open of 1.41811, a high of 1.41979, a low of 1.41334 and a close of 1.41376, a range of 64.5 pips.

Over the past five sessions, the range has run from a low of 1.41334 up to a high of 1.42989, and the pair is down 1.14% across that window. Over the past 20 sessions the range stretches further, from a low of 1.3978 up to the same high of 1.42989, with the pair still up 0.79% across that longer window.

Trend readings are mixed. The daily picture is classified mixed, with price above the 200-day EMA at 1.39203 but below the 20-day EMA at 1.41633; the daily RSI sits at 50.4, close to the midpoint. The four-hour and one-hour charts both point down, with their 20-period EMAs under their 50-period EMAs in each case.

What the Same Release Has Done Before

Across the last 11 releases of this report, the typical move in USD/CAD was 11.9 pips in the hour after the data and 11.5 pips four hours after; the largest one-hour move was 38 pips, set on September 14, 2026. After the 3 releases that came in above estimate, USD/CAD closed lower an hour later in all 3 cases. After the 7 releases that came in below estimate, it closed higher an hour later in 3 cases and lower in 4; one release matched the estimate exactly.

A move of the typical one-hour size from here would carry the pair up to 1.41042, a stretch with no listed level inside it, or down to 1.40804, a path that would cross S2 at 1.40918 along the way. This is a record of past behavior only, not a forecast for today's release.

Scenarios to Map Once the Data Lands

Independent of which way the numbers come in, the chart has two paths marked out. On the upside, clearing R1 at 1.41792 would open the way toward R2 at 1.42208, a path invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 1.41563. On the downside, a break under S2 at 1.40918 would open the way toward S3 at 1.40502, invalidated instead by a recovery back above that same daily pivot at 1.41563. Each path covers 41.6 pips from trigger to target.

Positioning, Yields and the Mood in Coverage

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, for the week to October 13, shows large speculators net long USD/CAD, having added to that net long position from the week before. In Treasuries, the 2-year yield closed October 16 at 4.74%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.09%, down 1 basis point, for a 2s10s curve of 35 basis points.

News coverage of the pair has been light, running at just 12% of its 90-day average volume, and the opportunity read from that coverage stands at -62, a bearish reading. Coverage this morning, as reported by FX Street, has centered on the pair's retreat to its weakest levels in several weeks as the market positions for the inflation data.

Other Releases on the Calendar

Beyond the CPI prints, the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey follows at 14:30 UTC today. Tomorrow brings a run of US data: the ADP Employment Change four-week average at 12:15 UTC (previous 24.75), Building Permits at 12:30 UTC (previous 1.394, estimate 1.4), Housing Starts at the same time (previous 1.275, estimate 1.31), and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (previous 0.3, estimate -0.5). Full timing for today's and tomorrow's releases is in the economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

Canada's CPI lands at 12:30 UTC today, with the year-on-year estimate at 3.2% against 3% previously and the month-on-month estimate at 0.2% against -0.1%. Going in, USD/CAD trades at 1.40923, sandwiched between S2 at 1.40918 and S1 at 1.41147, with the daily pivot at 1.41563 standing between the two mapped paths on the chart. More on the pair is available on the USD/CAD analysis page.