How could today's ISM Manufacturing PMI affect USD/CAD?

ISM Manufacturing PMI is due today at 14:00 UTC, previous 54.6 and estimate 55, alongside Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment and the Fed's Waller speech. USD/CAD last printed at 1.42402, 19.1 pips below R1 at 1.42593; the release is on the calendar, not proof of a break.

What does the Canadian Manufacturing PMI mean for USD/CAD today?

Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI prints today at 13:30 UTC, previous 53, with no estimate listed. It lands one hour before the US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC.

Is USD/CAD still bullish ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls?

Daily, H4 and H1 trends are all up, and last at 1.42402 is above the daily 200-day EMA at 1.38957. Nonfarm Payrolls are tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, previous 162 and estimate 90, not today.

What levels matter most for USD/CAD into the data?

Nearest resistance is R1 at 1.42593 and nearest support is the previous day high at 1.4236. A break above R1 at 1.42593 would open R2 at 1.42888, invalidated below the daily pivot at 1.42065; a break of S1 at 1.4177 would open S2 at 1.41242, also invalidated at the daily pivot at 1.42065.

USD/CAD forecast today: bullish with R1 at 1.42593

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 1, 2026, 10:41 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD is at 1.42402, up 0.07%, with daily, H4 and H1 trends up. R1 at 1.42593 is the nearest resistance into today's ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Distant city skyline across calm water beneath layered clouds

Price1.42402

Day change+0.07%

Day range1.42148 - 1.42576

ATR (14)0.00564

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.43416	S1	1.41770
R2	1.42888	S2	1.41242
R1	1.42593	S3	1.40947
Previous day high	1.42360	Previous day low	1.41537
20-day high	1.42360	20-day low	1.37588
Daily pivot 1.42065. Data as of 2026-10-01 10:37 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.42065, R1 1.42593, R2 1.42888, S1 1.41770, S2 1.41242 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/CAD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-01 10:37 UTC.

USD/CAD in the London session

USD/CAD last printed at 1.42402 in the London session, up 0.07% from the previous close at 1.42298, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing up. The evidence leans bullish. The single level that matters most is R1 at 1.42593, 19.1 pips above last.

The live USD/CAD rate shows a day high at 1.42576 and a day low at 1.42148. That 42.8-pip day range is 76% of the 14-period ATR of 56.4 pips. The day open was 1.42294. Nearest support is the previous day high at 1.4236, 4.2 pips below last.

Trend and momentum

Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends are all up, so the timeframes agree. Price trades above the daily 20-day EMA at 1.40341, the daily 50-day EMA at 1.39805 and the daily 200-day EMA at 1.38957. H4 holds above its 20-period EMA at 1.41974 and its 50-period EMA at 1.41362. H1 holds above its 20-period EMA at 1.42327 and its 50-period EMA at 1.42114.

Daily RSI is at 77.8. Over five days the pair is up 1%. Over 20 days it is up 2.9%.

Levels that matter

R1 at 1.42593 is the nearest resistance. The previous day high at 1.4236 is the nearest support. Pivot points put the daily pivot at 1.42065, with R2 at 1.42888 and R3 at 1.43416 above, and S1 at 1.4177, S2 at 1.41242 and S3 at 1.40947 below.

Yesterday's high was 1.4236 and yesterday's low was 1.41537, with yesterday's close at 1.42298 and yesterday's range at 82.3 pips. The 5-day high is at 1.4236 and the 5-day low is at 1.40839. The 20-day high is at 1.4236 and the 20-day low is at 1.37588. Round numbers are at 1.425 above last and at 1.42 below.

Bullish scenario and bearish scenario

Clearance of R1 at 1.42593 would open the way to R2 at 1.42888, a 29.5-pip stretch from the trigger. A drop back below the daily pivot at 1.42065 would invalidate that view.

Should the pair lose S1 at 1.4177, S2 at 1.41242 becomes the next objective, 52.8 pips from that trigger. Getting back above the daily pivot at 1.42065 would cancel that downside setup.

What could move USD/CAD today

The economic calendar is back-loaded into the London–New York overlap. Today at 12:30 UTC, US Initial Jobless Claims are due, previous 197 and estimate 200. Today at 13:30 UTC, Canada's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due, previous 53. Today at 14:00 UTC the high-impact ISM Manufacturing PMI prints, previous 54.6 and estimate 55, in the same minute as ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (previous 71.1, estimate 72.3), the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (previous 53.7), the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index (previous 51.2), and the Fed's Waller speech.

Later today, the Fed's Jefferson speaks at 17:30 UTC, the Fed's Bowman at 19:00 UTC, and the Fed's Williams and the Fed's Cook at 19:30 UTC. Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC, Nonfarm Payrolls are due (previous 162, estimate 90), along with Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (previous 3.1) and the U6 Underemployment Rate (previous 7.7).

Coverage from Forexcom, FXEmpire, FX Street and Action Forex has grouped around a USD/CAD advance, a firmer US dollar after growth data, and a still-constructive technical picture.

News sentiment stands 68% bullish against 32% bearish, while media mood is at 34 out of 100. The opportunity read is bullish at a score of 46, with news volume at 104% of the 90-day average.

As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net long USD/CAD. Speculators added to net long USD/CAD in that report.

At the September 30 close, the US 2-year yield was at 4.88%, down 1 basis point, and the 10-year yield was at 5.29%, up 3 basis points. The 3-month yield was at 4.2% and the 2s10s curve at 41 basis points.

Bottom line

USD/CAD is at 1.42402, up 0.07%, with all three timeframes aligned higher. R1 at 1.42593 is the level that matters most into today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. A break above R1 would open R2 at 1.42888; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.42065 would put S1 at 1.4177 in play ahead of tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls.