How could the Canadian GDP report impact the USD/CAD exchange rate today?

The Canadian Gross Domestic Product (MoM) release today at 12:30 UTC has a previous reading of 0.3. A higher-than-expected figure could support the Canadian Dollar, potentially putting downward pressure on USD/CAD, while a weaker print could fuel the current bullish trend.

Is USD/CAD overextended at its current highs?

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 74.4, which sits in overbought territory. However, the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes remain in aligned uptrends, indicating strong upward momentum.

What role will today's US JOLTS report and Fed speeches play in the market?

The US JOLTS Job Openings today at 14:00 UTC (previous 7.271, estimate 7.23) and six Federal Reserve speeches starting from 11:30 UTC could increase volatility by shaping expectations for US monetary policy.

USD/CAD Forecast Today: Bullish Bias Tests Key Levels

Daily outlook Bullish bias Sep 29, 2026, 08:55 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD trades at 1.4188, up 0.11% on the day, as a bullish trend alignment supports the market ahead of today's Canadian GDP and US JOLTS data.

Price1.41880

Day change+0.11%

Day range1.41623 - 1.41919

ATR (14)0.00557

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.42370	S1	1.41424
R2	1.42069	S2	1.41123
R1	1.41897	S3	1.40951
Previous day high	1.41767	Previous day low	1.41294
20-day high	1.41767	20-day low	1.37588
Daily pivot 1.41596. Data as of 2026-09-29 07:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

USD/CAD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.41596, R1 1.41897, R2 1.42069, S1 1.41424, S2 1.41123 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — USD/CAD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-09-29 07:46 UTC.

Where USD/CAD stands now

USD/CAD is trading at 1.4188 during the London session, marking an increase of 0.00154 or 0.11% on the day from the previous close at 1.41726. The day's trading range currently spans 29.6 pips, between a day low at 1.41623 and a day high at 1.41919. This range represents 53% of the 14-period average true range, which sits at 0.00557 (or 55.7 pips). At present, the bid price is 1.4188 and the ask is 1.41903, giving a tight spread of 2.3 pips.

Trend and momentum

The daily, H4, and H1 timeframes all agree on an upward direction, pointing to established bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the pair remains above its main exponential moving averages, with the 20-day EMA at 1.39951, the 50-day EMA at 1.39614, and the 200-day EMA at 1.38913. The H4 trend is up with its 20-period EMA at 1.41475 and its 50-period EMA at 1.40851. Momentum is also supported on the H1 timeframe, where the 20-period EMA sits at 1.41757 and the 50-period EMA is at 1.41601. Meanwhile, the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 74.4, indicating overbought conditions.

Levels that matter

The nearest technical resistance is R1 at 1.41897, which sits 1.7 pips above the current spot price. On the downside, the nearest support is yesterday's high at 1.41767, which is 11.3 pips below the current price. We can also reference the daily pivot points, starting with the daily pivot at 1.41596, S1 at 1.41424, and S2 at 1.41123. Yesterday's low is marked at 1.41294.

Looking at broader parameters, the 5-day high is at 1.41767, while the 5-day low is at 1.40234. On the longer 20-day horizon, the 20-day high sits at 1.41767 and the 20-day low is at 1.37588. Key round levels to observe are situated below at 1.415 and above at 1.42.

Bullish scenario

A sustained break above the immediate resistance level of R1 at 1.41897 would open the way to R2 at 1.42069, with the potential to challenge the round level above at 1.42. If the price moves back below the daily pivot at 1.41596, this bullish view would be invalidated.

Bearish scenario

Conversely, a downward break below the S1 support level at 1.41424 would shift the focus to S2 at 1.41123. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.41596 would invalidate this bearish setup.

What could move it today

The macroeconomic calendar is highly active today. In Canada, Gross Domestic Product (MoM) data is scheduled for 12:30 UTC, with a previous reading of 0.3. For the US, several medium-impact events are on deck today, starting with the Housing Price Index (MoM) at 13:00 UTC (previous 0, estimate 0.1). Later, at 14:00 UTC today, the market will receive both Consumer Confidence and the JOLTS Job Openings, which carries a previous print of 7.271 and an estimate of 7.23. The Federal Reserve calendar is also packed with speeches from Musalem at 11:30 UTC, Bowman at 15:00 UTC, Barr at 16:40 UTC, Goolsbee at 17:00 UTC, Williams at 18:00 UTC, and Waller at 19:00 UTC today. Looking ahead, tomorrow's high-impact US ADP Employment Change is scheduled for 12:15 UTC (previous 38, estimate 72).

Recent market commentary from FXEmpire, FX Street, and Rabobank highlights the US dollar's broader strength, while noting that the pair's rapid advance has introduced short-term overbought risks. As context for US interest rate expectations, on September 28, 2026, the US 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.92% (up 11 basis points) and the 10-year yield finished at 5.24% (up 7 basis points). Additionally, Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 22, 2026, shows that speculators added to net long USD/CAD, with net contracts in the Canadian Dollar futures market at -53210. News sentiment reflects a bullish tone at 73%, with a media mood score of 50 out of 100.

Bottom line

With daily, H4, and H1 trends aligned in a bullish configuration, USD/CAD continues to test key upper barriers. Traders can monitor the immediate R1 resistance at 1.41897 to see if the upside holds, or if the heavy lineup of US and Canadian data triggers a pullback toward support at 1.41767. Check our detailed USD/CAD technical analysis for further chart configurations before the North American session begins.