USD/CAD Forecast Today: Technicals Diverge Near 1.408
Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst
USD/CAD continues its short-term upward trajectory but faces a mixed daily trend as traders await key US PMI releases today.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 1.41479 | S1 | 1.40285 |
| R2 | 1.41155 | S2 | 1.39961 |
| R1 | 1.40882 | S3 | 1.39688 |
| Previous day high | 1.40831 | Previous day low | 1.40234 |
| 20-day high | 1.40831 | 20-day low | 1.37588 |
| Daily pivot 1.40558. Data as of 2026-09-23 07:01 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
US Dollar Strength Drifts USD/CAD Near Daily Highs
The USD/CAD exchange rate has climbed during the London session, trading at 1.40844. This reflects a daily increase of 0.17%, with the pair moving within a day range of 1.40525 to 1.40873 after opening at 1.40533. The daily volatility shows that today's range of 34.8 pips represents 60% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which currently stands at 58.1 pips (0.00581). Traders can track real-time fluctuations and historical movements on our live USD/CAD rate, chart and pivots page.
Trend and Momentum Analysis
Our USD/CAD technical analysis reveals divergent trend signals across major timeframes, which leads to a neutral short-term bias. While the short-term momentum is bullish with both the H4 and H1 timeframes in an "up" state, the daily trend remains classified as "mixed" despite the price trading above its EMA200 of 1.38859. On the H1 chart, the price is positioned above the EMA20 at 1.40682 and the EMA50 at 1.40464. Meanwhile, the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.8, remaining below overbought territory.
Key Resistance and Support Levels to Watch
The nearest support level lies immediately below the market at the previous day high of 1.40831, which is just 1.3 pips away. Slightly further down, key support rests at the daily pivot point of 1.40558, followed by the round level of 1.405. On the upside, the closest hurdle is the nearest resistance at the R1 pivot level of 1.40882, situated 3.8 pips from the current spot. Looking at broader boundaries, the 5-day range is defined by a high of 1.40831 and a low of 1.39071. Separately, the 20-day range spans between a high of 1.40831 and a low of 1.37588. A break past these boundaries could bring the round level of 1.41 into play.
Potential Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
A bullish scenario could unfold if the price breaks above the R1 resistance trigger of 1.40882. Such a move would open the path toward the R2 target at 1.41155, representing a 27.3-pip distance from the trigger. This outlook would be invalidated if the exchange rate falls back below the daily pivot invalidation level at 1.40558.
Conversely, a bearish scenario would be activated by a break below the S1 support trigger of 1.40285. This clearance would target the S2 support level of 1.39961, offering a distance of 32.4 pips. Any move rising back above the daily pivot invalidation level of 1.40558 would negate this bearish view.
US Flash PMI and Domestic Retail Sales as Catalysts
Today's economic calendar contains high-impact US economic data releases at 13:45 UTC, starting with the S&P Global Services PMI, which is estimated to arrive at 56 compared to a previous reading of 56.5. Simultaneously, we will see the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, with an estimate of 53.5 against the prior 53.9, alongside the S&P Global Composite PMI which previously stood at 56. Later today at 14:05 UTC, the Federal Reserve's Barr is scheduled to speak.
Tomorrow, several domestic catalysts could shape USD/CAD direction at 12:30 UTC, including Canadian Retail Sales (MoM), which is expected to contract to -0.8% from a previous 0.6%, and Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) projected at -0.5% against a prior 0.5%. These Canadian figures release alongside US Initial Jobless Claims, estimated at 201 against a prior 196. Also tomorrow, speeches are scheduled from the Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, Hammack at 12:50 UTC, and Paulson at 13:00 UTC.
Providing further context for US interest rate expectations, the US 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.71% (down 5 basis points) and the 10-year yield finished at 4.96% on September 22, 2026. CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 15, 2026, shows that large speculators are positioned in a net long USD/CAD stance, although they reduced net long USD/CAD positioning over the weekly reporting cycle.
In the news, media coverage highlights the persistent strength of the US Dollar, with FX Street reporting ongoing Canadian Dollar weakness and FXEmpire noting that Federal Reserve officials are keeping market attention on inflation risks. The news sentiment is currently highly optimistic, showing a bullish share of 71% and a bearish share of 29%, alongside a maximum media mood score of 100 out of 100 and a "bullish" opportunity reading of 50.
Bottom Line
The USD/CAD pair maintains upward momentum on the shorter-term charts as it trades near the R1 resistance level at 1.40882. While the daily trend remains mixed, upcoming US PMI data today and Canadian retail figures tomorrow represent the most immediate volatility risks. A clean breach of today's key pivots will likely dictate whether the pair tests the 1.41 round level or slides back toward the daily pivot.
FAQ
What is driving the USD/CAD rally today?
Media coverage, including reports from FX Street and FXEmpire, notes that US Dollar strength and concerns regarding inflation are keeping Canadian Dollar weakness in focus. Additionally, short-term trends on the H4 and H1 charts remain bullish as the pair trades at 1.40844.
How will the US S&P Global PMI data affect USD/CAD?
Today's US PMI reports at 13:45 UTC serve as major potential catalysts. A stronger-than-expected print relative to the estimates—which stand at 56 for Services and 53.5 for Manufacturing—could boost the US Dollar, while weaker readings might trigger a retracement.
What key technical levels are critical for USD/CAD's trend?
The daily pivot of 1.40558 is a pivotal level for both the bullish and bearish setups. On the upside, the closest hurdle is the R1 resistance at 1.40882, while the S1 support trigger rests at 1.40285.
