USD/CAD Forecast Today: Bulls Challenge Key Resistance

Daily outlook Bullish bias Sep 25, 2026, 07:07 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD trades higher at 1.41498 in the London session, with technical trends aligned to the upside across major timeframes as markets await key US durable goods data.

Bulls Extend Control as USD/CAD Climbs Past Key Benchmarks

The USD/CAD pair is trading firmly higher during the London session, with the rate currently sitting at 1.41498. This performance marks a daily gain of 0.12%, with the price up 0.00164 from the previous close of 1.41334. The pair opened the day at 1.41299, subsequently charting an intraday high of 1.41533 and an intraday low of 1.41249. This active range represents 28.4 pips, which accounts for 49% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR) of 0.00585. Traders interested in real-time tracking can monitor these fluctuations via the live USD/CAD rate feed.

The single level of immediate significance for the market right now is R1 resistance at 1.41601, which is located 10.3 pips above the current spot rate. With the price holding gains above the day's open, the technical posture remains constructive for the session ahead.

Technical Analysis: Momentum Metrics and Key Resistance

Technical indicators are aligned to the upside across all major timeframes. On the daily chart, the trend is classified as up, with the price trading above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3888, the 50-day EMA of 1.39452, and the 20-day EMA of 1.39592. The 14-day daily RSI is currently printed at 71.9, reflecting strong bullish momentum. For deeper updates on these indicators, check our dedicated USD/CAD analysis hub.

Shorter-term charts also reinforce this bullish structure. The H4 timeframe trend is classified as up, supported by the 20-period EMA at 1.40984 and the 50-period EMA at 1.40325. Moving down to the H1 timeframe, the trend remains up, with the 20-period EMA at 1.41383 holding above the 50-period EMA at 1.41159. All three timeframes are in agreement, confirming consistent bullish alignment across daily, H4, and H1 intervals.

Support Zones to Watch in Case of a Retracement

In terms of downside protection, the nearest support resides at the previous day high of 1.41487, sitting just 1.1 pips below current trading levels. Underneath that, the daily pivot point at 1.4122 serves as a pivotal support zone. To calculate additional intraday levels, traders can utilize our pivot point calculator.

Looking at broader historical boundaries, the 5-day range is defined by a high of 1.41487 and a low of 1.39752. Over the longer 20-day window, the pair has established a high of 1.41487 and a low of 1.37588. Psychologically, the market remains active between key round levels, with 1.415 acting as the nearest psychological ceiling above and 1.41 offering major support below.

Intraday Scenarios for the North American Session

Bullish Scenario: A decisive move above the trigger level of R1 at 1.41601 would open the path toward R2 at 1.41868. Under this positive projection, a drop back below the daily pivot at 1.4122 would negate the setup.

Bearish Scenario: Alternatively, a reversal that drives the pair below the trigger of S1 at 1.40953 would expose a potential decline toward the target of S2 at 1.40572. This bearish perspective would be invalidated if the rate climbs back above the daily pivot of 1.4122.

US Economic Calendar: Durable Goods and Sentiment in Focus

The North American session features several notable catalysts today. First, Fed's Williams is scheduled to speak at 09:15 UTC. At 12:30 UTC, the market receives key US Durable Goods Orders, estimated at -0.4% compared to the previous 1.1%, and Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation, projected at 0.6% against a previous 0.4%. Additionally, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft is anticipated at 0.5% today compared to the previous 0.2%, while Durable Goods Orders ex Defense carries a previous print of 1.3%.

Later today at 14:00 UTC, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to land at 47.6 versus the previous 47.8, alongside the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation (expected at 3.4%) and the UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (estimated at 4.6%). A final speech by Fed's Hammack is scheduled for 18:00 UTC today.

In general newsflow, reports from publishers such as FX Street, FXEmpire, and Forexcom have discussed the broader performance of the US dollar in North America alongside shifts in the US fixed-income space, noting that the currency may maintain a constructive technical stance. As context, US Treasury yields at the close of September 24, 2026, showed the 10-year yield at 5.18% (up 7 basis points) and the 2-year yield at 4.87% (up 2 basis points). Speculator positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to September 15, 2026, showed speculators held a net long USD/CAD position, although they reduced net long USD/CAD contracts that week. Finally, news sentiment reflects a supportive tone with a 60% bullish share and 40% bearish share, yielding a media mood score of 86 out of 100 and a bullish opportunity reading of 30.

Bottom Line

The USD/CAD pair enters the North American session with a strong bullish bias, supported by aligned uptrends on the daily, H4, and H1 charts. All eyes are on R1 resistance at 1.41601 and immediate support at the previous day high of 1.41487 ahead of the heavy slate of US economic data releases.