USD/CAD Forecast Today: Bullish Trend Nears 1.4100 Before Data Clash

Daily outlook Bullish bias Sep 24, 2026, 07:12 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

USD/CAD trends upward across all major timeframes during the London session. Market participants look toward concurrent data releases from the US and Canada to guide the next major price swing.

USD/CAD Consolidates Above the Daily Pivot in London Trading

During the London session, USD/CAD trades at 1.40996, effectively unchanged on the day with a fractional uptick of 0.00002. The current bid sits at 1.40996 against an ask of 1.41019, reflecting a 2.3-pip spread. Following the day's open at 1.4098, the market has carved out an intraday low of 1.40839 and a day high of 1.41126. This 28.7-pip movement accounts for 50% of the 14-day average true range of 58 pips. Looking at recent performance, the pair has gained 0.81% over the past five days and 1.62% over the 20-day period.

Timeframes Agree on an Upward Trend

Momentum aligns clearly across the observed intervals, signaling that the timeframes agree on an upward trend. The daily chart presents an up state, with price holding well above the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.38868. This bullish posture extends to the four-hour chart, where the trend remains up, and is confirmed by the one-hour chart, which also registers an upward state. Supporting the broader technical picture, the daily RSI reads 69.7, pointing to sustained buying pressure.

Nearest Levels and the 20-Day Range

The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.41087, positioned 9.1 pips from the current price. On the downside, the nearest support rests at the daily pivot at 1.40869, located 12.7 pips away. The 5-day range spans from a low of 1.39728 to a high of 1.41087. Expanding the view, the 20-day window features a low of 1.37588 and shares the same high of 1.41087. Evaluating the pivot structure, R1 stands at 1.41212, followed by R2 at 1.41431 and R3 at 1.41774. Support levels sit at S1 at 1.4065, S2 at 1.40307, and S3 at 1.40088. Psychological round levels frame the immediate action at 1.41 above and 1.405 below. For context on recent daily action, the previous day's trading opened at 1.40533, set a low at 1.40525, reached a high of 1.41087, and closed at 1.40994 to complete a 56.2-pip range.

Scenarios for Bullish and Bearish Breakouts

In a bullish scenario, a decisive move past the R1 trigger at 1.41212 would open the way to a target of R2 at 1.41431. A drop back below the daily pivot at 1.40869 would invalidate this setup. Conversely, if sellers take control, a break beneath the S1 trigger at 1.4065 could set up a bearish target of S2 at 1.40307. This downward view would be invalidated if price pushes back above the daily pivot at 1.40869.

US Jobless Claims and Canadian Retail Sales Take Focus

Today's fundamental catalyst centers on a macroeconomic data clash at 12:30 UTC. The US Initial Jobless Claims report arrives with an estimate of 201, following a previous reading of 196. At the exact same time, Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) will be released with expectations at -0.8 against a prior 0.6, alongside Canadian Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) estimated at -0.5 versus the previous 0.5. Additional scheduled events today include remarks from the Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC, Hammack at 12:50 UTC, and Paulson at 13:00 UTC, as well as the US New Home Sales Change (MoM) at 14:00 UTC, which previously printed at -10.5.

Newsflow broadly discusses US dollar performance in tandem with recent bond market activity and central bank remarks on price stability, as noted in coverage by FXEmpire and FX Street. News sentiment stands at 49% bullish and 51% bearish, with an overall media mood of 100 out of 100, while a separate opportunity metric registers a bullish reading of 25. Providing context on large speculator positioning, as of the week to September 15, the market was net long USD/CAD, though speculators reduced net long USD/CAD over the reporting period. In the US bond market at the September 23 close, the 2-year yield was 4.85%, up 14 basis points, and the 10-year yield reached 5.11%, rising 15 basis points.

Bottom Line

The consistent upward trend across the major timeframes points to underlying buyer control. Directional momentum for the remainder of the session will likely hinge on the market's reaction to the concurrent US and Canadian data releases, which could provide the volatility needed to challenge R1 at 1.41212 or drag price toward S1 at 1.4065.