Forex Market Update: Dollar Slips in New York Session as Gold Jumps

Session brief Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 12:50 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

The dollar trades softer against most majors in the New York session even as trend signals stay mixed; gold leads gainers near 4040 while ADP and ISM Services PMI readings are still ahead.

New York Session Snapshot

Trading sits in the London and New York overlap, with London set to close at 16:00 UTC. On the day, gold leads the board, up 2.80% to 4040.27, with Ethereum up 1.89%. Among the major currency pairs, AUD/USD is up 0.69%, EUR/USD up 0.61% and GBP/USD up 0.57%, with Bitcoin adding 0.49%. On the other side, WTI crude is the day's weakest performer at down 1.74%, while USD/CAD is down 0.50%, USD/JPY down 0.22% and the Nasdaq 100 (US100) is off 0.09%.

By the day's change alone, the dollar is softer against every major pair in view, but the daily trend reading is "mixed" across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY alike, and the four-hour trend disagrees with the day's move in places, USD/JPY's H4 trend is up even though the pair is down 0.22% on the day. That split keeps the broader dollar call neutral for now rather than a one-way read, a gap that shows up clearly on a currency strength meter.

Instruments at a Glance

Setups in Focus

EUR/USD last trades at 1.12589, up 0.61% on the day, after a range between a day low of 1.11823 and a day high of 1.12696. The pair sits above R1 at 1.12062, beyond the top of its pivot ladder. Holding above R1 keeps the day high at 1.12696 as the next reference point higher; slipping back under R1 at 1.12062 would turn attention toward the daily pivot at 1.11903.

Gold has been the standout mover, up 2.80% on the day to 4040.27 after swinging between a day low of 3919.82 and a day high of 4051.34. Like EUR/USD, it sits above R1 at 3968.97, beyond the top of its own pivot ladder. A continued hold above R1 leaves the day high at 4051.34 in view; a drop back beneath R1 at 3968.97 would shift the focus toward the pivot at 3932.16, a ladder worth mapping with a pivot point calculator.

USD/CAD tells the opposite story, down 0.50% on the day at 1.39379 after a range between 1.39376 and 1.40132. The pair sits below S1 at 1.3968, beyond the bottom of its pivot ladder. Staying under S1 keeps the pair pressured toward the day low at 1.39376; a recovery back above S1 at 1.3968 would put the daily pivot at 1.39895 back in view.

Newsflow Themes

FXEmpire and FX Street both tied the softer dollar and gold's advance to the US election outcome, as reported in their coverage of the Democrats' result. Separately, FX Street flagged positioning ahead of Friday's US jobs report, while FXEmpire examined how Australia's housing slump and higher interest rates could feed into the Australian dollar.

Calendar Ahead

ADP Employment Change crosses the wires at 13:15 UTC today, with the estimate at 69 against a previous reading of 90, and the ECB's Lane is due to speak at 13:20 UTC today. The S&P Global Composite PMI follows at 14:45 UTC today, estimate 57.6 matching the prior reading, ahead of a busy 15:00 UTC slot that brings the ISM Services PMI (estimate 54.8, previous 54.9) alongside the ISM Services New Orders Index, Prices Paid and Employment Index readings; a guide to reading the economic calendar covers how these releases are typically flagged by impact. Later, the BoJ publishes its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 23:50 UTC today, while Australia's trade figures, including a trade balance estimate of 1200 against a previous 495, land at 00:30 UTC tomorrow.

US Treasury yields, as of the November 3 close, stood at 4.95% on the 10-year, up 4 basis points, and 4.61% on the 2-year, up 2 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 34 basis points, context for the day's tone rather than its cause.

Bottom Line

The dollar's day-on-day softness is broad, but trend signals across the same pairs disagree, and the busiest stretch of US data, ADP at 13:15 UTC and the ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC, still lies ahead in this session. Gold and EUR/USD sit above their respective R1 levels while USD/CAD sits below S1, leaving each instrument's pivot ladder, rather than a single market-wide theme, as the clearer near-term reference.