Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast Today Is Neutral

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 28, 2026, 12:24 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 (US100) at 29778 is up 0.49% and still between the daily pivot at 29494.1 and R1 at 29859.2. Daily and H4 trends are mixed against an up H1, with the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC.

Market Position Ahead of the Fed

This is the London and New York overlap, and the next session mark is London's close at 16:00 UTC. Nasdaq 100 (US100) last prints at 29778, up 145 points, or 0.49%, from the previous close at 29633. The day opened at 29661.9. The day low is 29626.2 and the day high is 29830.8, a day range of 204.6 points. That range is 38% of the 14-period ATR at 532.9 points, with the reading set beside the ATR guide. Bid and ask are 29778 and 29780.5, a spread of 2.5 points. Price is between the daily pivot at 29494.1 and R1 at 29859.2. The day high at 29830.8 is still short of that R1. Yesterday's range was 591.3 points, from a low at 29129 to a high at 29720.3, so today's 204.6-point range is the narrower of the two prints.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily trend is mixed. Last price is above the 200-period EMA at 28027.4 and below both the 20-period EMA at 29823.9 and the 50-period EMA at 29801.1. The four-hour trend is mixed as well, even with price above the H4 20-period EMA at 29486.6 and the H4 50-period EMA at 29531.4. The one-hour trend is up, and price is above the H1 20-period EMA at 29698 and the H1 50-period EMA at 29519.7. Daily, four-hour and one-hour readings do not agree, so the evidence leans neutral rather than a clean directional bias. Daily RSI is 46.8. The five-day change is 0.41%, and the twenty-day change is down 2%.

Levels That Frame the Session

Nearest resistance is R1 at 29859.2, 81.2 points from the last price. Nearest support is the previous day high at 29720.3, 57.7 points away, and the last price is already above that high. The pivot map places the daily pivot at 29494.1, R1 at 29859.2, R2 at 30085.4 and R3 at 30450.5, then S1 at 29267.9, S2 at 28902.8 and S3 at 28676.6. Yesterday's high was 29720.3 and yesterday's low was 29129, with yesterday's close at 29633. The five-day range has a high at 29925.9 and a low at 28818. The twenty-day range has a high at 31365 and a low at 28818. The five-day high sits above R1 and below R2, while the twenty-day high sits above R3. Both window lows at 28818 sit below S2 and above S3. The round level above price is 30000, between R1 and R2, and the round level below price is 29000, between S1 and S2. Those daily pivots are the same family of levels described in the pivot points guide.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

The bullish case starts only if price breaks above R1 at 29859.2, which would open the way to R2 at 30085.4. Trigger to target on that path is 226.2 points, and the 30000 round level lies between those two prices. A move back below the daily pivot at 29494.1 would invalidate the bullish path. The bearish case does not trigger at the previous day high. It triggers on a break below S1 at 29267.9 and then opens the way to S2 at 28902.8, with 365.1 points between those levels and 29000 sitting in that span. If S1 gives way, a return above the daily pivot at 29494.1 would invalidate that downside path. The pivot is the invalidation for each path, not a trigger, and the last price is already above it. The day low at 29626.2 is also above S1, so the bearish trigger is outside today's range.

What Could Move Nasdaq 100 Today

On today's calendar, as laid out in the economic calendar guide, the high-impact US items are the Fed interest rate decision at 18:00 UTC, previous 4 and estimate 4, and the Fed monetary policy statement at 18:00 UTC, which has no previous reading and no estimate. The FOMC press conference is also high impact, set for 18:30 UTC, with no previous reading and no estimate. Those three sit after London closes at 16:00 UTC. No prior-release record is included for these events, so there is no past-move count to quote, and that gap is not a forecast of this decision.

Tomorrow, not today, the 12:30 UTC US slate is dense. High-impact releases then are the core personal consumption expenditures price index month on month, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; the core measure year on year, previous 3 and estimate 3.1; gross domestic product annualized, previous 2.2 and estimate 3.2; and the GDP price index, previous 6.1 and estimate 3.5. Medium-impact prints at that same tomorrow time are personal spending, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.6; the PCE price index year on year, previous 3.4 and estimate 3.6; PCE prices quarter on quarter, previous 5 and estimate 3.4; personal income month on month, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; initial jobless claims, previous 194 and estimate 199; core PCE quarter on quarter, previous 3.3 and estimate 2.4; and the PCE price index month on month, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.5.

Newsflow from Seeking Alpha, Invezz and the WSJ groups around a firmer Nasdaq, stronger technology shares and chip names, softer oil, and the Fed decision still ahead, according to those publishers. As of the week to October 20, CFTC data show large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with speculative length at 70.9% and shorts at 29.1%, a net 50726 contracts, and speculators added to net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) by 2203 contracts from 48523. That report is positioning, not a reason the index must move on the decision. US Treasury yields at the October 27 close had the three-month yield at 4.22%, the two-year yield at 4.7%, up 2 basis points, and the ten-year yield at 4.99%, down 1 basis point, with the two-year versus ten-year spread at 29 basis points against October 26. Those yields are context for rate expectations, not a proven cause of today's 0.49% change. News sentiment shows coverage volume at 162% of the 90-day average, and the opportunity read is 59, a bullish reading. A separate alert says that opportunity read moved from -42, bearish, to 12, neutral, in 24 hours, which describes media tone rather than order flow.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 (US100) at 29778 is up 0.49% on the day and still between the daily pivot at 29494.1 and R1 at 29859.2, with daily and four-hour trends mixed against an up one-hour trend. A break above R1 at 29859.2 would open R2 at 30085.4, while a break below S1 at 29267.9 would open S2 at 28902.8, and the daily pivot at 29494.1 is what would invalidate the path that had triggered. The Fed decision and statement at 18:00 UTC, then the press conference at 18:30 UTC, are the high-impact items still ahead today, with tomorrow's 12:30 UTC growth and inflation releases next on the calendar.