Nasdaq 100 (US100) Holds Flat as Traders Eye US PMI Data

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 23, 2026, 12:19 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is little changed near 28913.8, caught between the previous day low at 28850.4 and the daily pivot at 29184.6, with a mixed daily trend against a lower four-hour and one-hour picture ahead of today's US PMI and consumer sentiment releases.

Nasdaq 100 Holds Near the Daily Pivot

Nasdaq 100 (US100) trades at 28913.8 during the London and New York overlap, up 6.7 points, or 0.02%, from the previous close at 28907.1. Today's session has ranged between a day high of 29105.7 and a day low of 28850.2 from an open at 28913.3, a range of 255.5 points that covers 47% of the 14-day ATR of 541.9 points, leaving this session well inside its usual volatility band so far.

Yesterday's bar, dated October 22, opened at 29796.4, touched a high of 29796.4 and a low of 28850.4, and closed at 28907.1, a swing of 946 points. Price now sits between S1 at 28572.9 and the daily pivot at 29184.6.

Trend Signals Are Split Across Timeframes

The daily trend reads as mixed: the 20-day EMA at 29997.6 and the 50-day EMA at 29863.1 both sit above spot, while price still holds above the 200-day EMA at 28006.5. The four-hour chart trends down, with its 20-period EMA at 29283.4 below the 50-period EMA at 29643.3, and the one-hour chart also trends down, 20-EMA at 29023.4 under the 50-EMA at 29211.9. Daily RSI sits at 35.8, below the midline. With the daily picture mixed and both shorter-term frames pointing lower, the technical read is neutral rather than one-directional.

The broader performance window adds to the cautious tone: Nasdaq 100 is down 3.36% over five days and down 5.01% over twenty days.

Key Levels: Pivots, Prior Range and the Wider Bands

Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 29184.6, 270.8 points above spot, and nearest support is the previous day low at 28850.4, just 63.4 points below. Above the pivot, resistance builds at R1 29518.9, R2 30130.6 and R3 30464.9. Below S1 at 28572.9 sit S2 at 28238.6 and S3 at 27626.9; a pivot point calculator can help map these against intraday moves.

Yesterday's session left a high at 29796.4 and a low at 28850.4. The five-day range spans a high of 30020.6 and a low of 28850.4, while the twenty-day range runs from a high of 31365 down to the same low of 28850.4, a level that has held across all three windows. The round number at 29000 sits just above spot, with 28000 the next round figure to the downside.

Two Paths for US100 Today

Bullish scenario

A break above R1 at 29518.9 would open the way toward R2 at 30130.6. A slip back below the daily pivot at 29184.6 would undercut that case. The risk and reward calculator can help weigh that trigger-to-target distance against the invalidation point.

Bearish scenario

Losing S1 at 28572.9 would clear a path toward S2 at 28238.6. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 29184.6 would negate that setup.

What Could Move It Today

A cluster of US data lands this afternoon. At 13:45 UTC, the S&P Global Services PMI (previous 58.8, estimate 57.9) and Manufacturing PMI (previous 55.9, estimate 55.6) are both rated high impact, alongside the medium-impact Composite PMI (previous 58.4, no estimate given). At 14:00 UTC, the University of Michigan releases its 5-year (previous 3.5, estimate 3.5) and 1-year (previous 4.7, estimate 4.7) inflation expectations alongside the Consumer Sentiment Index (previous 46.3, estimate 46.3) and Consumer Expectations Index (previous 47.3, no estimate given). The guide to using an economic calendar covers how to track releases like these through the session.

Newsflow through the morning has centered on concerns about heavy AI-related spending weighing on technology shares, a theme Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and Invezz have each touched on in separate pieces on futures and tech-sector weakness.

CFTC data for the week to October 13, 2026 showed large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with longs at 70.5% of positioning against 29.5% short. That net long position was trimmed to 48523 contracts from 58123 the prior week, continuing a reduction in net long exposure. Treasury yields at the October 22 close eased, with the 2-year at 4.65% (down 16 basis points) and the 10-year at 4.96% (down 17 basis points), context for the broader rate backdrop rather than a signal for US100 itself.

News sentiment is running hot, with volume at 159% of the 90-day average, and the opportunity read stands at -71, a bearish score, a measure of coverage tone rather than a trading signal.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is essentially flat on the day near 28913.8, caught between the previous day low at 28850.4 and the daily pivot at 29184.6, with a mixed daily trend set against a lower-pointing four-hour and one-hour picture. A clean break of either the pivot or the previous day low, combined with this afternoon's PMI and sentiment data, would give the clearer directional signal the current setup lacks.