Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis Today: Neutral Below S2

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 22, 2026, 12:20 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

US100 last is 29340.1 in the London and New York overlap, down 1.63% and between S3 at 29215.9 and S2 at 29377.9. The daily trend is mixed, four-hour and one-hour trends are down, and the bias is neutral.

Where Nasdaq 100 Stands in the Overlap

During the London and New York overlap, at 12:15 UTC, Nasdaq 100 (US100) last prints at 29340.1. It is down 486.1 points, or 1.63%, from the previous close at 29826.2. The spread is 2.5 points, with the bid at 29340.1 and the ask at 29342.6. The day open is 29796.4, the day high is 29796.4 and the day low is 29233.5. The day range of 562.9 points is 111% of the 14-day ATR at 508.5. Price is between S3 at 29215.9 and S2 at 29377.9. Nearest resistance is S2 at 29377.9, 37.8 points above the last print, and nearest support is S3 at 29215.9, 124.2 points below. The daily trend is mixed while the four-hour and one-hour trends are down, so those timeframes do not agree and the bias is neutral. London closes at 16:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The daily trend state is mixed. The last print sits below the daily 20-period EMA at 30112.4 and below the daily 50-period EMA at 29902.1, while it remains above the daily 200-period EMA at 28003.7. Daily RSI is 45.9. The four-hour state is down, with that chart's 20-period EMA at 29569 and its 50-period EMA at 29836.5, and the last print is under both. The one-hour state is down too, with the one-hour 20-period EMA at 29458.1 and the one-hour 50-period EMA at 29550.2, and the last print is under both of those averages as well. The four-hour and one-hour down states agree with each other and conflict with the mixed daily state. Five-day performance is down 1.93%, and twenty-day performance is down 3.73%.

Pivot, Prior Day and Range Levels

Nearest resistance remains S2 at 29377.9 and nearest support remains S3 at 29215.9. Daily pivot levels put the pivot at 29764, R1 at 29988.1, R2 at 30150.1 and R3 at 30374.2, with S1 at 29602. S2 stands above price, so its role here is resistance, and S3 stands below price, so its role here is support.

Yesterday, on October 21, the bar opened at 29771.4, with a high at 29925.9, a low at 29539.8 and yesterday's close at 29826.2. The range on that bar was 386.1 points. The five-day high is 30020.6 and the five-day low is 29069.7. The twenty-day high is 31365 and the twenty-day low is 29069.7. The round level below price is 29000 and the round level above price is 30000.

Upside Path and Downside Path

The higher conditional path is a break above R1 at 29988.1, which would open the way to R2 at 30150.1. That trigger-to-target span is 162 points. A later move back below the daily pivot at 29764 would invalidate the higher path.

The lower path is separate. A break below S3 at 29215.9 would open the way to the round number at 29000, and that trigger-to-target span is 215.9 points. A move back above the daily pivot at 29764 would invalidate the lower path. In both maps the daily pivot is the invalidation, not the trigger.

Calendar, Newsflow, Positioning and Yields

Still ahead today is US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, previous 199, estimate 200, with the actual not released and the calendar impact marked medium. Tomorrow at 13:45 UTC the S&P Global Services PMI is due, previous 58.8 and estimate 57.9, marked high impact, alongside the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, previous 55.9 and estimate 55.6, also marked high impact, and the S&P Global Composite PMI, previous 58.4, marked medium impact, with no estimate listed. Tomorrow at 14:00 UTC the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due, previous 46.3 and estimate 46.3, with Michigan Consumer Expectations at a previous 47.3 and no estimate listed, the UoM one-year inflation expectation at a previous 4.7 and an estimate of 4.7, and the UoM five-year inflation expectation at a previous 3.5 and an estimate of 3.5. Each of those 14:00 UTC items is marked medium impact. The list on the economic calendar times the releases; it does not rank which print reaches S2 at 29377.9 or S3 at 29215.9.

Seeking Alpha and Invezz coverage runs from a sharp Nasdaq move and company reports to earlier notes on technology shares and earnings. That discussion does not prove the 1.63% decline from the previous close.

News sentiment shows volume at 157% of the 90-day average. The opportunity read is neutral at a score of -11, a coverage score rather than a price forecast.

As of the week to October 13, large speculators were net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with net contracts at 48523, 70.5% long and 29.5% short. Speculators reduced net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) that week, with the net change at -9600 contracts from 58123 the week before.

At the October 21 Treasury close, the two-year yield was 4.81%, up 2 basis points, and the ten-year yield was 5.13%, up 1 basis point, leaving the two-year/ten-year spread at 32 basis points. That close is rate context for October 21, not a demonstrated cause of the index move.

Bottom Line

The overlap read is neutral: the last price is 29340.1, down 486.1 points on the day, between S3 at 29215.9 and S2 at 29377.9, with four-hour and one-hour trends down against a mixed daily trend and RSI at 45.9. Claims at 12:30 UTC are the remaining US release today. Tomorrow's PMI block at 13:45 UTC and Michigan block at 14:00 UTC follow, and London closes at 16:00 UTC.