Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast Today: Neutral Bias

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 26, 2026, 13:04 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is up 0.44% at 29123.4 in the London and New York overlap, but the daily, H4 and H1 trends do not agree, so the bias stays neutral between the daily pivot at 28988.9 and R1 at 29159.7.

Where US100 Stands in the Overlap

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is at 29123.4 in the London and New York overlap, up 126.7 points, or 0.44%, from the previous close at 28996.7. The day open is 29120.4, the day high is 29190.7 and the day low is 28860.9. The day's range is 329.8 points, 63% of the 14-day ATR at 527 points, with London still due to close at 16:00 UTC. The bid is 29123.4 and the ask is 29125.9, a spread of 2.5 points. How that span compares with the 14-day ATR is the subject of the guide to ATR and volatility.

Daily, H4 and H1 Do Not Agree

The bias is neutral because the timeframes do not agree. The daily state is mixed: price is above the 200-day EMA at 28010.1 and below both the 20-day EMA at 29902.3 and the 50-day EMA at 29829.1. Daily RSI is 37.2. The four-hour state is down, with price under the H4 20-period EMA at 29157.2 and the H4 50-period EMA at 29493.8. The one-hour state is mixed, with the H1 20-period EMA at 29010.9 and the H1 50-period EMA at 29088.3. The five-day change is down 0.22%. The 20-day change is down 4.95%. Today's gain versus the previous close sits next to those two negative window changes and next to a down H4 state, so the evidence does not line up in one direction.

Nearby Levels, Pivots and Ranges

The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 29151.9, 28.5 points from the last price. The nearest support is the daily pivot at 28988.9, 134.5 points away. Price is between the daily pivot at 28988.9 and R1 at 29159.7. R2 stands at 29322.8 and R3 at 29493.6. Under the pivot, S1 is at 28825.8, S2 at 28655 and S3 at 28491.9. Those pivots can be rebuilt in the pivot point calculator.

On October 23 the high was 29151.9, the low was 28818 and the bar's range was 333.9 points; that session finished at 28996.7. The five-day range has its high at 29925.9 and its low at 28818. The 20-day range has its high at 31365 and its low at 28818. The round level below price is 29000. The round level above price is 30000.

Bullish Path and Bearish Path

A break above R1 at 29159.7 would open the way to R2 at 29322.8, a distance of 163.1 points from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 28988.9 would invalidate that upside path. The bearish case is gated differently: a break below S1 at 28825.8 would open the way to S2 at 28655, 170.8 points beyond the trigger. A move back above the daily pivot at 28988.9 would invalidate that downside path. On both paths the daily pivot is the invalidation, not the trigger. The last price at 29123.4 has not moved beyond R1 at 29159.7, and it has not moved beyond S1 at 28825.8.

Tomorrow's Calendar and the Backdrop

Nothing on the calendar falls today. Tomorrow's slate is all US and all medium impact. ADP Employment Change, the 4-week average, is at 12:15 UTC, previous 18.5, with no estimate listed. At 12:30 UTC, Durable Goods Orders has a previous reading of 0 and an estimate of 0.6; Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation has a previous reading of 0.3 and an estimate of 0.6; Durable Goods Orders ex Defense has a previous reading of 0.1 and no estimate; Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft has a previous reading of 1.6 and no estimate. Housing Price Index (MoM) is at 13:00 UTC, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.1. At 14:00 UTC, New Home Sales Change (MoM) has a previous reading of 6.4 and no estimate, and Consumer Confidence has neither a previous reading nor an estimate. The guide to the economic calendar is where those timestamps sit. Into that wait, the previous day high at 29151.9 is 28.5 points above and the daily pivot at 28988.9 is 134.5 points below.

Seeking Alpha, Invezz, CNBC, Reuters and Market Watch are taken up with Federal Reserve policy, hedging around artificial intelligence, chipmakers and the Nasdaq advance; according to that coverage those are the themes in circulation, and they may frame the overlap without proving the 0.44% gain. News volume is 23% of the 90-day average, and the opportunity read is neutral at -9 after a move from -54, a bearish reading, to -9 within 24 hours. As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), 70.9% long and 29.1% short, with the net at 50726 contracts; speculators added to that net long by 2203 contracts from 48523, which is positioning and not a forecast. At the October 23 close the 2-year Treasury yield was 4.69% and the 10-year yield was 5%, each up 4 basis points versus October 22, while the 3-month yield was 4.22% and the 2s10s spread was 31 basis points, rate context only.

Bottom Line for the Overlap

Nasdaq 100 (US100) holds a neutral bias in this overlap: the daily state is mixed, the H4 state is down, the H1 state is mixed and daily RSI is 37.2. Price at 29123.4 remains between the daily pivot at 28988.9 and R1 at 29159.7, with the previous day high at 29151.9 the nearest resistance, 28.5 points overhead. London closes at 16:00 UTC, and the medium-impact US releases on the list fall tomorrow rather than in the rest of this session.