Nasdaq 100 Holds Below R1 Ahead of Michigan Sentiment Data

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 9, 2026, 12:17 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

US100 is up 0.65% on the day and sitting between the daily pivot and R1, but daily, H4 and H1 trends don't fully agree, keeping the near-term picture balanced into today's Michigan sentiment data.

Nasdaq 100 Trades Higher Into the London-New York Overlap

US100 last changed hands at 30964.3, up 198.9 points, or 0.65%, from the previous close at 30765.4. The day's range runs from a low of 30715.1 to a high of 31028, against an open at 30790.1. That 312.9-point range equals 68% of the 14-day ATR at 458.2 points, so today's move has used up a large share of the index's typical daily range without yet exceeding it — a distinction covered in more detail in the guide to ATR and volatility.

Trend Signals Are Split Across Timeframes

The daily trend remains up, with price holding above the 20-day EMA at 30399.5, the 50-day EMA at 29870.4 and the 200-day EMA at 27844.2. Daily RSI14 reads 59.3, consistent with upward momentum but not an extreme reading.

The shorter-term picture is less clean. The H4 trend is labeled mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 30971.1 sitting just above the 50-period EMA at 30829.4, and the H1 trend is also mixed, with its 20-period EMA at 30925.9 sitting just below the 50-period EMA at 30961.8. With the daily trend pointing up while H4 and H1 sit in mixed territory, the timeframes don't fully agree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than firmly directional.

Levels That Matter Around Current Price

Price sits between the daily pivot at 30846.7 and R1 at 31140.1. The nearest resistance is R1 at 31140.1, 175.8 points away, and the nearest support is the daily pivot at 30846.7, 117.6 points away. Working up and down the full pivot ladder from that same calculation, R2 stands at 31514.9 and R3 at 31808.3, while S1 sits at 30471.9, S2 at 30178.5 and S3 at 29803.7 — the full set is laid out in the pivot point calculator, with background in the guide to how pivot points work.

Yesterday's session, dated 2026-10-08, ran from an open at 31170.9 to a high of 31221.4 and a low of 30553.2 before closing at 30765.4. The 5-day range runs from a low of 30501.1 to a high of 31365, while the 20-day range spans a low of 28744.6 up to the same high of 31365. Among round numbers, 31000 sits just above current price as a psychological resistance point, while 30000 lies well below as a round support level.

Bullish and Bearish Paths From Here

On the upside, clearing R1 at 31140.1 would open the way toward R2 at 31514.9; a slide back below the daily pivot at 30846.7 would undercut that case. On the downside, a break of S1 at 30471.9 would point toward S2 at 30178.5, with a recovery back above the daily pivot at 30846.7 invalidating that scenario. Either path can be sized against account risk using the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move US100 Today

Four US releases land together at 14:00 UTC: the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (previous 48.1, estimate 47.6, high impact), the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index (previous 46.3), the UoM 5-year consumer inflation expectation (previous 3.4) and the UoM 1-year consumer inflation expectations (previous 4.6). More on reading releases like these is available in the economic calendar guide. Newsflow is mixed, with some commentary warning of further downside for US equities even as other coverage points to early buying in tech names and uneven leadership across sectors following the prior session's pullback.

CFTC data as of the week to September 29, 2026 showed large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), with longs at 73% and shorts at 27% of futures positions and a net position of 51,247 contracts. That net long position was trimmed from 56,150 contracts the week before, a weekly shift of speculators reducing their net long Nasdaq 100 exposure. US Treasury yields at the close on 2026-10-08 showed the 2-year yield at 4.75%, down 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.22%, down 6 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 47 basis points — context for rate expectations rather than a direct driver of the index.

Bottom Line

US100 is higher on the day and parked between the daily pivot at 30846.7 and R1 at 31140.1, with the daily trend up but H4 and H1 trends mixed, leaving the near-term setup balanced. A push through R1 at 31140.1 would shift focus toward R2 at 31514.9, while a drop back under the daily pivot would open the door to S1 at 30471.9. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and its accompanying inflation-expectations readings at 14:00 UTC sit ahead of any directional resolution during the current London-New York overlap, with London not closing until 16:00 UTC.