Nasdaq 100 (US100) Forecast Today: Bulls Eye R2 Near Highs

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 6, 2026, 12:17 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

The Nasdaq 100 trades up 0.61% near its day high with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing up, leaving R2 at 31381.6 as the next resistance and the daily pivot at 30970.7 as the line that would undercut the bullish case.

Nasdaq 100 Pushes Toward the Day's High

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) trades at 31279.9, up 191 points, or 0.61%, from the previous close at 31088.9. The session opened at 31103.9 and has ranged between the day low of 31058.7 and the day high of 31285.2, with price now sitting just under that high.

Today's range of 226.5 points covers about 49% of the 14-day Average True Range of 458.1 points, so the session has used up roughly half of its typical daily movement so far. Readers can size out how that compares with other sessions using the ATR and volatility guide.

Trend and Momentum Line Up Across Timeframes

The daily trend is up, with price above the 20-day EMA at 30175.5, the 50-day EMA at 29720.1 and the 200-day EMA at 27746.4. The four-hour trend is also up, with the 20-period EMA at 30911 above the 50-period EMA at 30636, and the one-hour trend agrees, with its 20-period EMA at 31109.2 above the 50-period EMA at 30958.2.

All three timeframes point the same direction, which keeps the setup directional rather than mixed. The daily RSI(14) reads 68.5.

Levels That Matter

Price sits between R1 at 31235.2 and R2 at 31381.6. The nearest support is R1 at 31235.2, 44.7 points below the last price, and the nearest resistance is R2 at 31381.6, 101.7 points above it. For a breakdown of how these pivot levels are derived, see the pivot points guide or run fresh numbers with the pivot point calculator.

Beyond that, the daily pivot stands at 30970.7, R3 at 31646.1, and the lower pivots at S1 30824.3, S2 30559.8 and S3 30413.4. Yesterday's (October 5) session opened at 30851.3, ran between a low of 30706.1 and a high of 31117, and closed at 31088.9, a range of 410.9 points. The 5-day window shows a high of 31117 and a low of 30092.8, while the 20-day window shows a high of 31117 and a low of 28744.6. Price is also sitting above the round 31000 level, with the round 32000 level well overhead.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, a break above R2 at 31381.6 would open the way toward R3 at 31646.1; a move back below the daily pivot at 30970.7 would invalidate that path. On the downside, a break below S1 at 30824.3 would open the way toward S2 at 30559.8, a case that would be invalidated by a move back above the daily pivot at 30970.7. Either scenario can be checked against position sizing and reward-to-risk using the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move the Nasdaq 100 Today

Two Fed speeches are scheduled today: Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC, both flagged as medium-impact events with no prior reading listed. The FOMC Minutes are scheduled for tomorrow, October 7, at 18:00 UTC and carry a high-impact tag; the economic calendar guide explains how releases like this are typically read. Newsflow across several outlets has centered on fresh record highs in tech shares and enthusiasm around big-tech and software activity, alongside some commentary questioning how broad-based the rally really is.

CFTC data as of the week to September 29 shows large speculators net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) in futures, though they trimmed that net long position versus the prior week. As of October 5, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.84%, up 1 basis point, and the 10-year yield at 5.31%, up 3 basis points, context for the broader rate backdrop rather than a driver of the index move itself.

News sentiment data shows coverage running 75% bullish versus 25% bearish, with media mood at 77 out of 100, down from 100 the previous day, and a separate opportunity reading of 54, described as bullish. This reflects the tone of coverage and a distinct opportunity score, not trader positioning or a signal that any level will hold.

Bottom Line

With daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all up and price pressing toward the day's high, the near-term bias leans bullish while R2 at 31381.6 sits as the next resistance to clear and R1 at 31235.2 as the support beneath current price. Two Fed speeches today and the FOMC Minutes tomorrow are scheduled risk points that could shift conditions before either scenario plays out, and the daily pivot at 30970.7 remains the level that would undercut the current bullish structure.