Nasdaq 100 Forecast Today: US100 Holds Between S1 And S2

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 7, 2026, 12:21 UTC

Nathan BrooksUS Markets & Federal Reserve Analyst · ForexR analyst

Nasdaq 100 is down 0.73% near 31022.8, trading between S1 and S2 ahead of today's FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC.

Nasdaq 100 Today: Price, Range And Volatility

Nasdaq 100 (US100) is trading at 31022.8 during the London and New York overlap, down 228.3 points, or 0.73%, against the previous close of 31251.1. The session opened at 31260.6 and has ranged between a day high of 31273.5 and a day low of 30971.7, a span of 301.8 points.

That day range covers 67% of the 14-day Average True Range of 447.2 points, as explained in the ATR and volatility guide, leaving room for the session to widen further before the close. Price currently sits just above the psychological 31000 round level, with 32000 well overhead.

Trend And Momentum: Daily, H4 And H1 Diverge

The daily trend is up, with price holding above the 20-day EMA at 30277.9, the 50-day EMA at 29780.1 and the 200-day EMA at 27780.2. Daily RSI14 reads 70.2. The four-hour trend is also classified up, with EMA20 at 31016.3 sitting above EMA50 at 30746.7.

The one-hour trend, however, is mixed: both EMA20 at 31155.8 and EMA50 at 31098.6 sit above the current price of 31022.8. With the higher timeframes pointing up while the shortest timeframe is mixed and today's move is lower, the picture across timeframes doesn't fully agree, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than clearly directional.

Levels That Matter: Pivots, Ranges And Round Numbers

Price sits between S2 at 30918.6 and S1 at 31084.9. The nearest resistance above is the previous day low at 31058.7, just 35.9 points away, while the nearest support below is S2 at 30918.6, 104.2 points away.

The daily pivot stands at 31224.9, with R1 at 31391.2, R2 at 31531.2 and R3 at 31697.5 above it, and S1 at 31084.9, S2 at 30918.6 and S3 at 30778.6 below it. These can be mapped with the pivot point calculator, built on the method covered in the pivot points guide. Yesterday's bar ran from an open of 31103.9 to a high of 31365 and a low of 31058.7, closing at 31251.1 for a range of 306.3 points.

Over the past five trading days, Nasdaq 100 has ranged between a high of 31365 and a low of 30237.8. Across the past 20 trading days, the high still stands at 31365, while the low extends down to 28744.6.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios For US100

A bullish path would need a break above R1 at 31391.2 to open the way toward R2 at 31531.2; a slip back below the daily pivot at 31224.9 would undercut that case.

On the other side, a drop through S2 at 30918.6 would expose S3 at 30778.6 as the next downside marker, with a recovery back above the daily pivot at 31224.9 invalidating that bearish read. The risk on either path can be measured with the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move Nasdaq 100 Today

FOMC Minutes are due today at 18:00 UTC, a high-impact release with no previous reading or estimate attached. Tomorrow brings a trio of Fed-linked items: a speech from Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (previous 197, estimate 200), and a speech from Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC. The economic calendar guide covers how to track these releases.

Newsflow this week has centered on a tech and AI-driven rally that carried major indices to record highs, according to The Guardian and Seeking Alpha, alongside Barron's coverage questioning whether upcoming earnings can sustain that advance, plus WSJ reporting on Wall Street bonus trends and the trade deficit. News sentiment on US100 is 78% bullish versus 22% bearish, though the media mood score has eased to 44 out of 100 from 78 the previous day, and the opportunity read stays neutral.

As of the week to September 29, large speculators held a net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) position, with longs at 73% of open interest versus 27% short. The weekly shift shows speculators reduced net long Nasdaq 100 (US100), trimming net contracts from 56,150 to 51,247.

US Treasury yields eased into the October 6 close, with the 2-year yield at 4.79%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.27%, down 4 basis points, putting the 2s10s curve at 48 basis points.

Bottom Line

Nasdaq 100 is down 0.73% at 31022.8, sitting between S1 at 31084.9 and S2 at 30918.6 while the daily and four-hour trends point up and the one-hour trend stays mixed. The previous day low at 31058.7 and S2 at 30918.6 are both within reach, with the daily pivot at 31224.9 standing as the invalidation level for either the bullish or bearish scenario. FOMC Minutes land at 18:00 UTC today, a separate high-impact event on the calendar for this session.