Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast Today Stays Neutral Under S1

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 29, 2026, 06:45 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

Gold (XAU/USD) last printed 4028.91, down 0.94% on the day and between S2 at 4000.23 and S1 at 4033.75. Daily and H4 trends are down, but H1 is mixed, so the bias stays neutral in the Asia session.

Gold holds between S2 and S1 in Asia

In the Asia session, with London opening at 07:00 UTC, Gold (XAU/USD) sits between S2 at 4000.23 and S1 at 4033.75. The last price is 4028.91, down 38.37 from the previous close at 4067.28, a 0.94% loss on the day. Nearest resistance is S1 at 4033.75, 4.84 dollars away, and nearest support is the previous day low at 4024.64, 4.27 dollars away. Daily and four-hour trends are down, the hourly trend is mixed, and that split leaves the bias neutral.

The day opened at 4067.37, the day high is 4068.75 and the day low is 4022.03. The day range of 46.72 dollars is 64 percent of the 14-day ATR at 72.77 dollars. On October 28 the prior candle opened at 4061.52, posted a high at 4082.58 and a low at 4024.64, and covered 57.94 dollars, with yesterday's close at 4067.28.

Daily and H4 point down, H1 is mixed

The daily trend is down. The last price is below the 20-period EMA at 4123.48, the 50-period EMA at 4203.18 and the 200-period EMA at 4407.38. Daily RSI reads 41.5. The five-day change is -2.71%, and the twenty-day change is -3.08%.

The four-hour trend is down, with its 20-period EMA at 4041.53 and its 50-period EMA at 4064.16, both above the last price. The hourly trend is mixed, with its 20-period EMA at 4043.3 and its 50-period EMA at 4040.61. The daily and four-hour states agree on down, and the hourly state does not.

Nearest levels, pivots and the two ranges

Nearest resistance is S1 at 4033.75, 4.84 dollars from the last price. Above that sit the round number at 4050, the daily pivot at 4058.17, the previous day high at 4082.58, R1 at 4091.69, R2 at 4116.11 and R3 at 4149.63. The last price is already below S1, below 4050 and below the pivot, so those marks are resistance from this print.

Nearest support is the previous day low at 4024.64, 4.27 dollars from the last price. The day low stands at 4022.03, then S2 at 4000.23, the round number at 4000 and S3 at 3975.81. The five-day high is 4144.42 and the five-day low is 3975.6. The twenty-day high is 4226.51 and the twenty-day low is 3975.6. The daily pivot at 4058.17 is the reference on the pivot point calculator.

Upside and downside conditions

The upside condition is a break above R1 at 4091.69, which would open the way to R2 at 4116.11, 24.42 dollars from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 4058.17 would invalidate that path. Price at 4028.91 is still under the pivot, so the pivot is the invalidation, not a trigger from here.

The downside condition is built differently. A break below S2 at 4000.23 would open the way to S3 at 3975.81, also 24.42 dollars from that trigger to that target. Invalidation sits the other way: a move back above the daily pivot at 4058.17 would cancel that downside path.

The 12:30 UTC US slate, positioning and yields

Today at 12:30 UTC, the high-impact US releases are Core PCE month on month, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; Core PCE year on year, previous 3 and estimate 3.1; annualized GDP, previous 2.2 and estimate 3.2; and the GDP price index, previous 6.1 and estimate 3.5.

Medium-impact releases at the same time today are Personal Spending, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.6; the PCE price index year on year, previous 3.4 and estimate 3.6; PCE prices quarter on quarter, previous 5 and estimate 3.4; Personal Income, previous 0.2 and estimate 0.3; initial jobless claims, previous 194 and estimate 199; Core PCE quarter on quarter, previous 3.3 and estimate 2.4; and the PCE price index month on month, previous 0.3 and estimate 0.5. Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC the Employment Cost Index follows, medium impact, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.8. S1 remains 4.84 dollars above the last price and the previous day low remains 4.27 dollars below it.

As reported by FX Street, headlines there discuss a softer gold price, a Federal Reserve hold and US data still to come, while Action Forex also refers to the Federal Reserve hold. As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net long Gold (XAU/USD), 86.4% long and 13.6% short, with a net 199865 contracts. Speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) from 207879 contracts the prior week, a net change of -8014 contracts, which is positioning rather than a forecast.

At the October 28 close, the 2-year yield was 4.67%, down 3 basis points versus October 27, and the 10-year yield was 5.05%, up 6 basis points, with the 2s10s spread at 38 basis points and the 3-month yield at 4.18%, described here as context only. News volume is 163% of the 90-day average, and the opportunity read is 7, neutral. An alert says that opportunity read moved from -1, neutral, to 49, bullish, within 24 hours, which is not a forecast.

Bottom line for the Asia session

For the Asia session, with London opening at 07:00 UTC, Gold (XAU/USD) is at 4028.91, down 0.94% on the day, between S2 at 4000.23 and S1 at 4033.75. Daily and four-hour trends are down and daily RSI is 41.5, while the hourly trend is mixed, so the bias stays neutral. A break above R1 at 4091.69 would open the way to R2 at 4116.11, whereas a break below S2 at 4000.23 would open the way to S3 at 3975.81; the upside path fails on a move back below the daily pivot at 4058.17, and the downside path fails on a move back above that same pivot.