GBP/USD Forecast Today: Downtrend Sits Above the Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 29, 2026, 06:34 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

GBP/USD is down 0.1% on the day at 1.33121 in the Asia session, holding between the daily pivot at 1.33113 and R1 at 1.33511 while daily, H4 and H1 trends all point lower.

Asia Leaves GBP/USD Just Above the Daily Pivot

GBP/USD last printed at 1.33121 in the Asia session, down 0.1% on the day from the previous close at 1.33248, a change of -0.00127. The day open stands at 1.33237, the day high at 1.33352 and the day low at 1.33017, with the spread at 1.8 pips on the live GBP/USD rate. Price sits between the daily pivot at 1.33113 and R1 at 1.33511.

The day range is 33.5 pips, which is 49% of the 14-day ATR of 68 pips (0.0068), the comparison set out in the ATR guide. London opens at 07:00 UTC, so this remains the Asia session, and those extremes are the day high and the day low.

Daily, Four-Hour and One-Hour Trends Agree Lower

The daily trend is down, the four-hour trend is down and the one-hour trend is down, so the three timeframes agree. The daily 20-period EMA is 1.33178, the 50-period EMA is 1.33507 and the 200-period EMA is 1.3399, with price below that 200-period EMA. On the four-hour chart the 20-period EMA is 1.3325 and the 50-period EMA is 1.33298. On the one-hour chart the 20-period EMA is 1.33137 and the 50-period EMA is 1.33165.

Daily RSI reads 50.1, a midpoint figure next to that aligned downtrend rather than an extreme momentum print. Performance is down 0.6% over five days and up 0.37% over 20 days.

Nearest Levels, Pivots and the Multi-Day Ranges

Nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.33113, 0.8 pips from price. Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.33376, 25.5 pips away. The rest of the pivot map puts R1 at 1.33511, R2 at 1.33773 and R3 at 1.34171, and S1 at 1.32851, S2 at 1.32453 and S3 at 1.32191.

Yesterday's bar on October 28 had a high of 1.33376 and a low of 1.32716, a range of 66 pips, with yesterday's close at 1.33248. The five-day high is 1.34183 and the five-day low is 1.32716. The 20-day high is 1.34183 and the 20-day low is 1.3136. The round level below is 1.33 and the round level above is 1.335.

A Higher Path Through R1, a Lower Path Through S1

A break above R1 at 1.33511 would open the way to R2 at 1.33773, 26.2 pips from that trigger to that target. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.33113 would invalidate that higher path.

A break below S1 at 1.32851 would open the way to S2 at 1.32453 instead, with 39.8 pips between those two levels. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.33113 would invalidate that lower path. Price is still between the daily pivot at 1.33113 and R1 at 1.33511, so neither break is in place on this Asia print.

US Releases at 12:30 UTC, Plus Positioning and Yields

Today at 12:30 UTC the high-impact US releases are GDP annualized (previous 2.2, estimate 3.2), the GDP price index (previous 6.1, estimate 3.5), core PCE month-on-month (previous 0.2, estimate 0.3) and core PCE year-on-year (previous 3, estimate 3.1). The same 12:30 UTC slot also lists medium-impact personal spending (previous 0.9, estimate 0.6), PCE prices year-on-year (previous 3.4, estimate 3.6), PCE prices quarter-on-quarter (previous 5, estimate 3.4), personal income (previous 0.2, estimate 0.3), initial jobless claims (previous 194, estimate 199), core PCE quarter-on-quarter (previous 3.3, estimate 2.4) and PCE prices month-on-month (previous 0.3, estimate 0.5). Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC brings the employment cost index, previous 0.9 and estimate 0.8, as timed on the economic calendar.

News coverage groups around a softer chart tone in GBP/USD, as reported by FX Street, Action Forex and Forex.com, while Action Forex also highlights US GDP and FXEmpire discusses the dollar in connection with a Federal Reserve decision.

News sentiment shows volume at 169% of the 90-day average, and the opportunity read is bearish at -55. That read describes the tone of coverage, not order flow and not a forecast.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net short GBP/USD, at 28.7% long and 71.3% short for a net -80420 contracts, and the weekly shift shows speculators reduced net short GBP/USD from -106964 contracts, a change of 26544. The report is days old and shows positioning, not where price goes next.

US Treasury yields at the October 28 close had the 3-month at 4.18%, the 2-year at 4.67% (down 3 basis points versus October 27) and the 10-year at 5.05% (up 6 basis points), with the 2s10s spread at 38 basis points. They are rate context beside the pair, not evidence of why GBP/USD is down 0.1% on the day.

Bottom Line Before London Opens

GBP/USD is at 1.33121 in Asia, down 0.1% on the day, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all down and daily RSI at 50.1. Nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.33113, 0.8 pips away, and nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.33376, 25.5 pips away. A break above R1 at 1.33511 would open R2 at 1.33773, whereas a break below S1 at 1.32851 would open S2 at 1.32453, and both paths use the daily pivot at 1.33113 as invalidation, with London opening at 07:00 UTC and the US releases at 12:30 UTC today.