Forex Weekly Recap: Gold Plunges as WTI Crude Oil Surges

Week wrap Neutral bias Oct 23, 2026, 21:33 UTC

James WhitmoreChief Market Strategist · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil led the week's gains while Gold faced heavy selling pressure, driving divergent technical trends across major asset classes heading into the weekend.

WTI Crude Oil registered a 3.86% five-day advance into the market close, contrasting with a 3.99% slide in Gold. Our latest market analysis highlights distinct divergences across assets, as precious metals faced heavy pressure while energy markets caught a bid.

Weekly Movers and Trend Overview

The table below details the five-day percentage changes across major forex, commodity, and cryptocurrency instruments.

Newsflow and Positioning Context

Headlines this week from FX Street, FXEmpire, and Forexcom focused on gold's sharp decline and broader pressure across precious metals. Coverage also noted a surge in oil prices, which may be influencing market sentiment ahead of scheduled central bank events, as reported by the financial press.

Looking at speculative positioning, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders report as of the week to October 20 provides insight into futures market activity. Speculators reduced net long Gold (XAU/USD) and reduced net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD). In currencies, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD and reduced net short GBP/USD, while they added to net short USD/JPY and added to net short AUD/USD. Elsewhere, speculators added to net long Nasdaq 100 (US100) and reduced net long Bitcoin (BTC/USD).

Providing context from the bond market at today's daily close, the 2-year yield stood at 4.69%, up 4 basis points, and the 10-year yield sat at 5%, also up 4 basis points. The 3-month yield closed at 4.22%, leaving the 2s10s curve at 31 basis points.

Technical Setup Across Key Assets

Following the market close, EUR/USD recorded a final print of 1.12023, ending the session between the daily pivot at 1.12012 and R1 at 1.12186. The euro cross established a daily high of 1.12259 and a low of 1.11839, holding a 14-day Average True Range of 60.6 pips. A break above R1 at 1.12186 would open the way to higher resistance levels. Conversely, a move back below the 1.12012 daily pivot would invalidate that upward view.

Gold closed at 3997.79, positioned between S1 at 3972.24 and the daily pivot at 4003.11. The precious metal formed a daily high of 4033.98 and a low of 3975.6, alongside an RSI of 33.5. Should buyers push the metal past the daily pivot at 4003.11, the technical structure would point to further upside. A failure to maintain support and a subsequent drop beneath S1 at 3972.24 would negate this possibility.

GBP/USD ended the session at 1.33762, trading between S1 at 1.33524 and the daily pivot at 1.33796. The pair displays a mixed daily trend but an upward four-hour trend, with the RSI at 55.1. A close beyond the daily pivot at 1.33796 creates a pathway for extended gains. On the downside, sliding beneath S1 at 1.33524 compromises the immediate bullish outlook.

USD/JPY printed its last quote at 156.839, finishing the trading week positioned between the daily pivot at 156.671 and R1 at 157.286. The daily high reached 157.138 before pulling back, while the daily low was set at 156.056. If the pair successfully clears R1 at 157.286, it points toward renewed upward momentum. Retreating below the 156.671 daily pivot, however, cancels out that upside bias.

AUD/USD settled at 0.70346, holding between the daily pivot at 0.70258 and R1 at 0.7048. The Australian dollar saw a daily high of 0.70374 and a low of 0.70037. Taking out R1 at 0.7048 points toward further advances. Alternatively, a breakdown through the 0.70258 daily pivot takes that scenario off the table.

USD/CAD closed out the session at 1.40025, operating between the daily pivot at 1.39969 and R1 at 1.40264. The Canadian dollar cross recorded a day high of 1.40176 and a day low of 1.39675. Penetrating R1 at 1.40264 supports a continuation of the upward leg. Slipping under the 1.39969 daily pivot disrupts that thesis.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) ended the week at 81369.92, situated between the 81358.94 daily pivot and R1 at 81774.65. The digital asset traded between a high of 81950.61 and a low of 80943.22 over the session. An advance past R1 at 81774.65 sets the stage for a broader rally, whereas sinking beneath the 81358.94 daily pivot renders the bullish case invalid. Ethereum (ETH/USD) closed at 2396.48, located between S1 at 2335.15 and the daily pivot at 2407.76. Overcoming the daily pivot at 2407.76 directs focus to overhead targets. Losing ground below S1 at 2335.15 strips away that upward potential.

The Nasdaq 100 (US100) recorded a final print of 28996.7, positioning the equity index between the daily pivot at 28973.9 and R1 at 29129.7. The index ranged from a low of 28818 to a high of 29151.9. A decisive move above R1 at 29129.7 supports a constructive tone. Falling short and breaking below the 28973.9 daily pivot invalidates this constructive angle.

WTI Crude Oil finished at 102.723, holding between the 101.629 daily pivot and R1 at 104.823. The energy benchmark reached a high of 103.362 and a low of 98.435. Breaching R1 at 104.823 opens the door for buyers to press higher. Reversing course to trade under the 101.629 daily pivot shuts down the immediate bullish setup.

The Week Ahead

Turning to the scheduled economic calendar, Monday features key events out of the Eurozone and Germany. At 06:00 UTC, the European Central Bank's Elderson is scheduled to deliver a speech. This is followed at 09:00 UTC by the German IFO surveys, bringing the Business Climate index, which carries an estimate of 89.8, alongside the Current Assessment and Expectations releases.