WTI Crude Oil Forecast Today: Bullish Above R2

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 23, 2026, 13:20 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI last printed 101.212, up 2.55% and between R2 at 101.015 and R3 at 102.252, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all higher. Nearest resistance is R3; nearest support is the five-day high at 101.039.

Where WTI stands in the overlap

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is between R2 at 101.015 and R3 at 102.252 in the London and New York overlap, and the trend evidence leans bullish. The last is 101.212, up 2.514 dollars, or 2.55%, from the previous close, with the bid at 101.212, the ask at 101.252 and the spread at 0.04 dollars. The day open is 98.715, the day low is 98.435 and the day high is 101.23, so the last sits just under the high of the day. Nearest resistance is R3 at 102.252, 1.04 dollars above. Nearest support is the five-day high at 101.039, 0.17 dollars below.

The day range is 2.8 dollars, 74% of the 14-day average true range at 3.77 dollars. London closes at 16:00 UTC, so this is still the overlap rather than a finished session. Yesterday's bar on October 22 covered 2.4 dollars from a low at 97.384 to a high at 99.779, and yesterday's close was 98.698. The live WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) rate carries these prints, and the ATR and volatility guide is the reference for setting that day range beside the 14-day measure.

Trend and momentum line up

Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends are all up, so the timeframes agree. Price is above the daily 20-day exponential moving average at 94.378, the 50-day average at 91.155 and the 200-day average at 82.045, and the daily state is up with price above the 200-day average. The four-hour state is up, with the last above the four-hour 20-period average at 98.86 and the 50-period average at 97.02. The one-hour state is up, with the last above the one-hour 20-period average at 99.94 and the 50-period average at 99.19.

Daily RSI is 63.2. The five-day change is up 5.22%. The twenty-day change is up 7.7%. Both windows are higher and match the three uptrend states; they describe performance already printed, not the next release.

Levels around the advance

R3 at 102.252 remains the nearest resistance. The round number above the last is 101.5, and the round number below the last is 101, leaving 101.212 between those two figures. Because the last is above R2 at 101.015, R2 is support on this map, as are R1 at 99.857 and the daily pivot at 98.62. Yesterday's high at 99.779 and yesterday's low at 97.384 are below the last as well.

S1 is at 97.462, S2 is at 96.225 and S3 is at 95.067. The five-day range has its high at 101.039 and its low at 95.038. The twenty-day range has its high at 101.039 and its low at 86.296. The last at 101.212 is above the five-day high. The day high at 101.23 is above the twenty-day high.

Bullish and bearish scenarios

A break above R3 at 102.252 would open the way to the next round number at 102.5, a span of 0.25 dollars from that trigger to that target. A move back below the daily pivot at 98.62 would invalidate the bullish path. The pivot sits under the last, so it is the invalidation, not a trigger still overhead.

The bearish path is built differently. A break below S1 at 97.462 would open the way to S2 at 96.225, 1.24 dollars from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 98.62 would invalidate that bearish path. At a last of 101.212, S1 is a lower condition, not a level the overlap is pressing.

What is scheduled before the London close

Today at 13:45 UTC the US S&P Global Services PMI is due, high impact, previous 58.8 and estimate 57.9. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is at the same time, high impact, previous 55.9 and estimate 55.6. The S&P Global Composite PMI is also at 13:45 UTC, medium impact, previous 58.4, with no estimate listed. At 14:00 UTC the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is scheduled, medium impact, previous 46.3 and estimate 46.3, beside the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index at a previous 47.3 with no estimate, the one-year inflation expectation at a previous 4.7 and an estimate of 4.7, and the five-year inflation expectation at a previous 3.5 and an estimate of 3.5. Those previous-and-estimate pairs are calendar comparisons only. No past-release record is in this set for how XTI/USD traded after earlier PMI or Michigan prints, so none of this is a forecast of the figures or of the oil response. Today's 13:45 UTC PMI slate and 14:00 UTC Michigan set line up with the economic calendar guide. Baker Hughes US oil rig count is today at 17:00 UTC, low impact, previous 459 and no estimate, after London closes at 16:00 UTC.

Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg Markets and Finance and Market Watch are centered on supply risk and security strains involving Iran and Saudi Arabia. That newsflow may color the backdrop into the data, as reported by those publishers, without proving why the last is at 101.212.

News volume is at 135% of the 90-day average. The opportunity read is a score of 79, marked bullish, and an alert notes that read moving from -37, tagged bearish, to 66, tagged bullish, within 24 hours; it is coverage tone, not confirmation of a level.

As of the week to October 13, large speculators were net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), with speculative longs at 58.5% and shorts at 41.5%, a net 100343 contracts. Speculators added to net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), a weekly change of 1283 contracts from 99060, which is positioning as of that report and not a forecast.

US Treasury yields at the October 22 close showed the 2-year at 4.65%, down 16 basis points versus October 21, and the 10-year at 4.96%, down 17 basis points, with the 3-month yield at 4.22% and the 2s10s curve at 31 basis points. Those yields are dollar-side context, not a demonstrated cause of the crude move.

Bottom line

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) leans bullish through the rest of this London and New York overlap, last at 101.212 between R2 at 101.015 and R3 at 102.252, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all up. A break above R3 at 102.252 would open the way to 102.5, and a move back below the daily pivot at 98.62 would invalidate that path. A break below S1 at 97.462 would open the way to S2 at 96.225, and a move back above the same pivot would invalidate that path, with the PMI set at 13:45 UTC and Michigan at 14:00 UTC still ahead of the London close at 16:00 UTC.