Forex Market Update: Oil Surge Jolts the London Session

Session brief Neutral bias Oct 23, 2026, 07:19 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

Oil's push through R1 at 99.857 is the standout move of the London session, while gold and the euro drift lower and dollar direction stays mixed into a packed PMI calendar.

London Session Snapshot

Oil is the clear leader of the session, with WTI Crude Oil up 1.56% on the day and trading above R1 at 99.857, already beyond the top of its pivot ladder. Gold is the weakest instrument on the board, down 0.21% and sitting between S1 at 3982.16 and the daily pivot at 4063.29. Among the majors, the euro and pound are both softer, down 0.14% and 0.16% respectively, while the dollar is firmer against the yen and the Canadian dollar but softer against the Australian dollar, leaving the broader dollar picture mixed as the full slate of ForexR analysis for the day comes into focus.

Oil's Advance and the Drag on Gold

WTI Crude Oil has cleared its daily pivot at 98.62 and R1 at 99.857 to trade at 100.236, up 1.56% on the day and up 4.2% over the past five sessions, with both the daily and four-hour trend pointing up and the fourteen-day RSI at 63.2. Holding above R1 at 99.857 would keep the advance intact for now; a retreat back under the pivot at 98.62 would be the first sign that the move is fading, with S1 at 97.462 as the next level below that.

Gold is on the other side of that ledger, down 0.21% on the day and down 3.71% over five days, sitting between S1 at 3982.16 and the daily pivot at 4063.29 with both the daily and four-hour trend lower and RSI at 35. A reclaim of the pivot at 4063.29 would be needed to put R1 at 4105.50 in view; a break of S1 at 3982.16 would extend the pullback. US Treasury yields, as of the close on October 22, show the 2-year at 4.65%, down 16 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.96%, down 17 basis points, with the 2s10s curve at 31 basis points — context for rate expectations, not a cause of today's moves.

Euro and Pound Ahead of the PMI Window

EUR/USD is lower by 0.14% at 1.11993, between S1 at 1.1183 and the daily pivot at 1.12192, with both the daily and four-hour trend down and RSI at 39. A move back above the pivot at 1.12192 would open the way toward R1 at 1.12506; a slip under S1 at 1.1183 would point to further downside. The pivot point calculator can map out how those levels sit relative to the day's open, high and low.

GBP/USD is down 0.16% at 1.33764, also between S1 at 1.33619 and the daily pivot at 1.33901, but here the four-hour trend is up even as the daily trend reads mixed, a split worth noting given RSI at 58.1 and a five-day change of +0.78%. Clearing the pivot at 1.33901 would bring R1 at 1.34261 into play; losing S1 at 1.33619 would shift the near-term focus lower.

Yen and Loonie: Narrower Ranges

USD/JPY is up 0.20% at 157.068 even though the daily and four-hour trend are both lower, sitting between S1 at 156.201 and the pivot at 157.215 with RSI at 40.7. Staying above S1 at 156.201 keeps the pivot at 157.215 and R1 at 157.762 in reach; a break lower would expose that five-day decline of 0.57% further.

USD/CAD is up 0.05% at 1.40141, between S1 at 1.39903 and the pivot at 1.40192, with the four-hour trend down against a mixed daily read and a five-day change of -1.19%. A push through the pivot at 1.40192 would open the door to R1 at 1.40356, while a break of S1 at 1.39903 would resume the broader five-day slide. The currency strength meter offers a quick cross-check on which side of that tug-of-war is winning out across majors right now.

Newsflow Themes

Commentary from FXEmpire and FX Street is framing the oil advance alongside renewed inflation and rate-sensitivity talk, with gold's pullback discussed in that same breath. Separate FX Street pieces describe both the euro and the Canadian dollar as rangebound against the greenback, while dollar-focused coverage from FXEmpire describes the greenback as coiled near recent levels against the pound.

Calendar Ahead

• 07:30 UTC today: German HCOB Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI
• 08:00 UTC today: Eurozone HCOB Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMI
• 08:30 UTC today: UK S&P Global Composite, Services and Manufacturing PMI
• 12:30 UTC today: Canadian Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
• 13:45 UTC today: US S&P Global Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI

New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC, putting the Canadian retail sales data and the US PMI releases inside that window. The guide to using an economic calendar covers how to track a cluster of same-day releases like this one.

Bottom Line

Oil's break above R1 at 99.857 stands out against a session where gold, the euro and the pound are all softer and the dollar's own direction is split between the yen and loonie on one side and the Australian dollar on the other. With German, Eurozone and UK PMI data due between 07:30 and 08:30 UTC and US PMI figures following at 13:45 UTC, the pivot, R1 and S1 levels laid out above give a reference point for how each pair and the oil market react as that data lands.