What is the Ethereum (ETH/USD) forecast today ahead of US PMI data?

ETH/USD trades at 2401.30, up 0.63% on the day, sitting between the daily pivot at 2407.76 and S1 at 2335.15. The daily trend is mixed while the four-hour and one-hour charts both point down, which keeps today's technical bias neutral ahead of the PMI releases at 13:45 UTC.

How do spot ETF outflows affect ETH price today?

Tokenpost reported that spot ether ETFs swung back to outflows, part of a broader risk-off newsflow theme that also includes Invezz coverage of geopolitical tension triggering long liquidations. That newsflow does not establish a direct cause for today's 15.01 bounce, so it should be read as background context rather than an explanation for the move.

Does the Glamsterdam Hoodi delay change the short-term ETH outlook?

CryptoPotato and Coingape both reported that Ethereum delayed the Glamsterdam Hoodi test fork while developers examine EIP-8037. That is a protocol-development story, not a price trigger, and the near-term technical outlook still runs through the pivot levels, particularly the daily pivot at 2407.76 and S1 at 2335.15.

What would signal that today's Ethereum bounce is failing?

A move back below the daily pivot at 2407.76 would undercut the bullish case built around a break of R1 at 2458.48, and a slide beneath S1 at 2335.15 would open the way toward S2 at 2284.43.

Ethereum Forecast Today: ETH Steadies Near $2407.76 Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 23, 2026, 07:12 UTC

Marcus ReedTechnical Analysis Lead · ForexR analyst

ETH/USD trades near $2401.30, between the daily pivot at $2407.76 and S1 at $2335.15, with daily, H4 and H1 trends not aligned ahead of today's US PMI and consumer sentiment data.

Dark sculpted sphere outlined by subtle coloured light

Price2,401.30

Day change+0.63%

Day range2,381.62 - 2,412.92

ATR (14)97.06

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	2,581.81	S1	2,335.15
R2	2,531.09	S2	2,284.43
R1	2,458.48	S3	2,211.82
Previous day high	2,480.38	Previous day low	2,357.05
20-day high	2,739.00	20-day low	2,313.07
Daily pivot 2,407.76. Data as of 2026-10-23 07:05 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 2,407.76, R1 2,458.48, R2 2,531.09, S1 2,335.15, S2 2,284.43 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — Ethereum (ETH/USD), 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-23 07:05 UTC.

Ethereum's London Session Snapshot

Ethereum trades at 2401.30 during the London session, up 15.01, or 0.63%, from the previous close at 2386.29. Today's session has opened at 2386.29 and spanned a low of 2381.62 and a high of 2412.92, with New York set to join the session at 12:00 UTC. That intraday span works out to 31.30, only about 32% of the 14-day Average True Range of 97.06 explained in the ATR volatility guide, so today's price action is still contained within a narrow slice of its recent typical daily move.

Trend and Momentum: Timeframes Are Not Aligned

The daily chart carries a mixed label: price sits above the 200-period EMA at 2319.84 but below the 20-period EMA at 2484.55 and the 50-period EMA at 2476.39. The four-hour chart is down, with EMA20 at 2420.53 under EMA50 at 2435.58, and the one-hour chart is down as well, EMA20 at 2401.56 beneath EMA50 at 2416.04. Daily RSI14 reads 38.6, below the 50 midpoint, consistent with the softer short-term tape. With the daily state mixed and both shorter frames pointing lower, the readings do not agree, which keeps today's bias neutral. Over five days ETH is roughly flat, up 0.07%, while the 20-day change is down 10%, a reminder that the current bounce sits inside a deeper pullback.

The Levels in Play

Price sits between S1 at 2335.15 and the daily pivot at 2407.76, the kind of read generated by the pivot point calculator. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot at 2407.76, just 6.46 away, while the nearest support is the previous day low at 2357.05, 44.25 below current trade. Above the pivot, resistance runs to R1 at 2458.48, R2 at 2531.09 and R3 at 2581.81; below S1, the grid continues to S2 at 2284.43 and S3 at 2211.82. Yesterday's bar, dated 2026-10-22, opened at 2471.83, spanned a high of 2480.38 and a low of 2357.05, and closed at 2385.86 for a range of 123.33. The five-day range spans a low of 2325.48 and a high of 2524.38, while the wider 20-day range spans a low of 2313.07 and a high of 2739. Round-number levels sit close by too, at 2400 just under spot and 2450 overhead.

Two Paths From Here

Bullish Scenario

A break above R1 at 2458.48 would open the way to R2 at 2531.09; slipping back below the daily pivot at 2407.76 would undercut that case.

Bearish Scenario

A slide beneath S1 at 2335.15 would clear a path toward S2 at 2284.43, while a recovery back above the daily pivot at 2407.76 would call the bearish case into question.

What Could Move ETH Today

The US calendar is busy. At 13:45 UTC, S&P Global publishes its Services PMI, previously 58.8 and estimated at 57.9, the Manufacturing PMI, previously 55.9 and estimated at 55.6, and the Composite PMI, previously 58.4 with no estimate on file. At 14:00 UTC, the University of Michigan releases its 5-year consumer inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 3.5), the 1-year inflation expectation (previous and estimate both 4.7), the Consumer Sentiment Index (previous and estimate both 46.3) and the Consumer Expectations Index (previous 47.3, no estimate). The mechanics behind reading a release like this are covered in the economic calendar guide.

Running through today's coverage, Invezz links geopolitical tension to a round of long liquidations, while Tokenpost reports spot ether ETFs swinging back to outflows, a risk-off thread that sits alongside separate protocol-development stories from CryptoPotato and Coingape on a delayed Glamsterdam Hoodi test fork tied to EIP-8037, plus a Tokenpost report on an Ethereum Foundation draft for a post-quantum key registry. None of that newsflow proves why price has moved; it simply describes what the market is reading alongside the chart.

News sentiment's opportunity read on ETH/USD stands at -8, a neutral reading, though the gauge has swung from 31, bullish, to -34, bearish, over the past 24 hours. That shift describes the tone of coverage, not trader positioning, and it is not a signal of where price heads next.

Bottom Line

Ethereum's bounce to 2401.30 keeps price pinned just under the daily pivot at 2407.76, with the daily trend mixed and both the four-hour and one-hour charts still pointing down, a split picture that argues for a neutral stance into the session. A break through R1 at 2458.48 or a breakdown under S1 at 2335.15 would offer the next directional signal, and the PMI data at 13:45 UTC and the Michigan releases at 14:00 UTC are both on today's calendar. Until one of those levels gives way, the range between the previous day low at 2357.05 and the daily pivot at 2407.76 overhead is what defines the session.