AUD/USD Forecast Today: Pair Tests R1 Near 0.7022

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 21, 2026, 07:19 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades between the daily pivot at 0.69956 and R1 at 0.70218, with the daily trend mixed even as H4 and H1 momentum point higher. US Initial Jobless Claims are due tomorrow at 12:30 UTC.

Where AUD/USD Stands in the London Session

AUD/USD is changing hands at 0.70177 during the London session, up 0.24% on the day after adding 0.00165 from the previous close. The pair opened at 0.70005 and has moved between a day high of 0.70283 and a day low of 0.69879, a range of 40.4 pips. For a live read on where price sits right now, see the AUD/USD rate and chart.

That 40.4-pip range covers 82% of the 14-day average true range of 49 pips. With New York still to join the session at 12:00 UTC, the day's move so far sits inside the pair's typical average volatility band rather than beyond it.

Trend and Momentum: A Split Picture

The daily trend reads as mixed: price is above the 200-day EMA at 0.69778 but below the 50-day EMA at 0.70316, with the 20-day EMA at 0.69917 sitting just under spot. Daily RSI stands at 49.2, essentially neutral. The shorter timeframes lean the other way - the four-hour trend is up, with its 20-period EMA at 0.69854 above the 50-period EMA at 0.69752, and the one-hour trend is also up, with its 20-period EMA at 0.70065 above the 50-period EMA at 0.69928.

Because the daily reading is mixed while the four-hour and one-hour trends both point up, the timeframes do not fully agree, which keeps the broader bias neutral even though intraday momentum is firmer. Over the past five days the pair is up 0.53%; over the past twenty days it remains down 1.33%.

Levels That Matter

Price is positioned between the daily pivot at 0.69956 and R1 at 0.70218. The nearest resistance is R1, just 4.1 pips above spot, while the nearest support is the previous day high at 0.70162, now sitting 1.5 pips below price. Beyond R1, the pivot grid extends to R2 at 0.70424 and R3 at 0.70686; on the downside, S1 sits at 0.69750, S2 at 0.69488 and S3 at 0.69282. A primer on how these levels are calculated is in the pivot points guide.

Yesterday's session, October 20, opened at 0.69778 and closed at 0.70012, with a high of 0.70162 and a low of 0.69694, a range of 46.8 pips. The five-day range runs from a low of 0.68932 to a high of 0.70162, while the twenty-day range is wider, from that same 0.68932 low to a high of 0.71174. The round number at 0.70000 sits just under spot, with the next round figure at 0.70500 overhead.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

A break above R1 at 0.70218 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70424. That path stays intact as long as price holds above the daily pivot at 0.69956; a slip back under the pivot would invalidate it.

On the other side, a drop through S1 at 0.69750 would clear the way toward S2 at 0.69488. The same daily pivot at 0.69956 is the level that would undo the bearish case if price reclaims it. Either scenario can be sized against risk with the risk/reward calculator once a trigger level is reached.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The calendar is quiet through the London and early New York hours; the next scheduled release is US Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow, October 22, at 12:30 UTC, with the estimate at 200 against a previous reading of 199. Newsflow around the pair has centered on chart-pattern debate - FX Street has raised the idea of a reversal and a developing double-bottom shape, Forex.com has pointed to headwinds facing the recent bounce, and ExchangeRates tied an AUD move to RBA commentary - reflecting active discussion rather than a settled view.

CFTC data as of the week to October 13 showed large speculators net short AUD/USD, with that net short position added to from the prior week. US Treasury yields at the October 20 close stood at 4.79% on the 2-year, up 2 basis points, and 5.12% on the 10-year, down 3 basis points, with the 3-month at 4.26%.

News coverage volume on the pair is running at 147% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read sits at a neutral 3, having moved from -16 (bearish) to 5 (neutral) over the past day.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is holding above the daily pivot and testing the area just under R1, with intraday trend higher but the daily picture mixed and RSI near neutral. A clean break of R1 at 0.70218 or a failure back below the pivot at 0.69956 would offer the next directional signal, with US jobless claims due tomorrow adding to the session's calendar watch list.