What is the AUD/USD forecast today?

The technical bias for AUD/USD is neutral today because the down trends on the daily and H4 charts conflict with the mixed state on the H1 chart. Price rests between immediate support at the daily pivot (0.69303) and nearest resistance at R1 (0.69673).

Will US industrial production data move the AUD/USD pair?

The US Industrial Production (MoM) data is scheduled for release today at 13:15 UTC. Market estimates project a print of 0.4, compared to the previous reading of 0.

Is the AUD/USD bullish after the Australian jobs report?

Despite being up 0.42% for the day, the broader technical view is not outright bullish. The daily trend remains down with price holding below the 200-period EMA at 0.6976, keeping the current bias strictly neutral.

What technical levels are important for AUD/USD today?

Traders are watching R1 at 0.69673 as the nearest resistance and the daily pivot at 0.69303 as the nearest support. Key round numbers closely bracketing current price are 0.69 below and 0.695 above.

AUD/USD Forecast Today: Pair Holds Near 0.69475 as Momentum Signals

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 16, 2026, 06:54 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades higher by 0.42% at 0.69475, framed by resistance at R1 (0.69673) and support at the daily pivot (0.69303). The technical bias remains neutral due to conflicting signals across the daily and hourly timeframes.

Blue flag with white stars waving above clouds

Price0.69475

Day change+0.42%

Day range0.69063 - 0.69478

ATR (14)0.00484

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	0.70533	S1	0.68813
R2	0.70163	S2	0.68443
R1	0.69673	S3	0.67953
Previous day high	0.69792	Previous day low	0.68932
20-day high	0.71393	20-day low	0.68932
Daily pivot 0.69303. Data as of 2026-10-16 06:50 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

AUD/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 0.69303, R1 0.69673, R2 0.70163, S1 0.68813, S2 0.68443 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — AUD/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-16 06:50 UTC.

Post-Jobs Data Technical Recovery

The AUD/USD pair trades at 0.69475 late in the Asia session, finding itself positioned between the daily pivot at 0.69303 and R1 at 0.69673. The live AUD/USD rate shows the pair is up 0.42% from the previous close of 0.69184. Action during the session has spanned from a day low of 0.69063 to a day high of 0.69478. This intraday movement covers a day range of 41.5 pips, which accounts for 86% of the 14-day average true range of 48.4 pips.

Key Momentum Signals

Trend indicators currently point in different directions across the observed windows. The daily chart indicates a down trend, with price trading below the 20-period EMA at 0.69971, the 50-period EMA at 0.70388, and the 200-period EMA at 0.6976. The H4 timeframe similarly holds a down trend, sitting beneath its 20-period EMA at 0.69508 and 50-period EMA at 0.69633. In contrast, the H1 timeframe reveals a mixed state against its 20-period EMA at 0.69313 and 50-period EMA at 0.69418. Because these timeframes disagree, the technical bias for the session is neutral. Momentum on the daily chart shows the 14-period RSI at 33.9.

Key Levels for Today's Trade

Nearest resistance above current price sits at R1 at 0.69673, while immediate support forms at the daily pivot at 0.69303. Looking back to yesterday's close, the previous day printed a high of 0.69792 and a low of 0.68932, covering a range of 86 pips. The 5-day window establishes a high of 0.70121 and a low of 0.68932, alongside a 5-day performance drop of 0.11%. The broader 20-day timeframe records a high of 0.71393 and a low of 0.68932, reflecting a 2.26% decline over that span. Market participants may also note the round numbers situated below at 0.69 and above at 0.695.

Bullish Continuation Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 0.69673 would open the way to R2 at 0.70163. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.69303 would invalidate this upside view.

Downside Reversal Risks

For the bearish scenario, a break below S1 at 0.68813 would open the way to S2 at 0.68443. This downside trajectory would be invalidated by a move back above the daily pivot at 0.69303. Traders evaluating these levels may consult a pivot point calculator to track threshold distances across the board.

US Industrial Production Release Preview

Market narratives heading into today's session focus on the Australian Dollar fighting back from selling pressure following weak Australian employment data, as reported by Forexcom and FX Street. News sentiment metrics from an independent provider track coverage volume at 312% of the 90-day average, returning a bearish opportunity reading of -19.

Focusing on the economic calendar, today brings the US Industrial Production (MoM) release at 13:15 UTC. The estimate calls for a print of 0.4, against a previous figure of 0. This is followed at 18:00 UTC by the US Monthly Budget Statement, estimated at -29 compared to the prior -166.8. Looking to tomorrow, an IMF Meeting is scheduled for 00:00 UTC.

Providing broader context, weekly Commitments of Traders data as of the week to October 6 showed large speculators added to their net short AUD/USD position. In the US bond market, Treasury yields at the daily close on October 15 placed the 2-year yield at 4.77%, down 5 basis points from the prior close, and the 10-year yield at 5.1%, lower by 9 basis points.

Bottom Line

With the Asia session maturing, London opens next at 07:00 UTC. Traders face a market bracketed by immediate resistance at R1 (0.69673) and support at the daily pivot (0.69303), set against a backdrop of conflicting directional momentum.