AUD/USD Forecast Today: Neutral Into the US Jobs Data

Daily outlook Neutral bias Oct 2, 2026, 07:30 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD last trades at 0.69405, up 0.17% in the London session. Daily and H4 trends are down while H1 is mixed; R1 at 0.69552 is the nearest resistance into today's US jobs data.

AUD/USD holds a modest London bid near 0.69405

AUD/USD last prints at 0.69405 in the London session, up 0.17% on the day and 0.00116 from the previous close at 0.69289. Evidence leans neither side cleanly: daily and four-hour trends are down, the hourly chart is mixed, and the daily pivot at 0.6929 is the level that matters most. The session's range sits between the day low at 0.69119 and the day high at 0.69419, with the day's open at 0.6928. That 30-pip day range is 65% of the 14-period ATR at 46.5 pips.

The live AUD/USD rate is holding above the daily pivot while remaining short of the round 0.695 handle.

Trend and momentum do not fully agree

The daily trend is down, with price below the 200-day EMA at 0.69679 and well below the 20-day EMA at 0.70592 and the 50-day EMA at 0.70765. The four-hour trend is also down, the 20-period EMA at 0.69581 and the 50-period at 0.70034 both sitting overhead. On the hourly chart the state is mixed: the 20-period EMA at 0.69317 sits below price and the 50-period EMA at 0.69438 sits just above it.

Daily RSI is at 25.9. Over five days the pair is down 0.99%; over twenty days it is down 3.58%. Higher-timeframe pressure is intact, but the hourly mix keeps the near-term read from lining up, so the bias stays neutral rather than outright bearish.

Levels that matter around the London print

Nearest resistance is R1 at 0.69552, 14.7 pips above the last price. Nearest support is the daily pivot at 0.6929, 11.5 pips below. Those two levels bracket the London session.

Classic pivots place P at 0.6929, R1 at 0.69552, R2 at 0.69814 and R3 at 0.70076, with S1 at 0.69028, S2 at 0.68766 and S3 at 0.68504. Yesterday's high is at 0.69553 and yesterday's low at 0.69029. The same structure is laid out on the pivot point calculator.

The five-day range runs from a high at 0.70418 to a low at 0.69029. The twenty-day range runs from a high at 0.72369 to a low at 0.69029. Round numbers sit at 0.695 above the market and 0.69 below it.

Bullish and bearish scenarios

Upside path

A break above R1 at 0.69552 would open the way to R2 at 0.69814, a 26.2-pip span from trigger to target. That view would be invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 0.6929.

Downside path

If price slips through S1 at 0.69028, S2 at 0.68766 comes into view, also 26.2 pips from the trigger. A recovery back through the daily pivot at 0.6929 would cancel that bearish map.

What could move AUD/USD today

Today's US labor package hits at 12:30 UTC: Nonfarm Payrolls (previous 162, estimate 90), Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (previous 3.1, estimate 3.2), Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (previous 0.3, estimate 0.3), the Unemployment Rate (previous 4.1, estimate 4.1), the U6 Underemployment Rate (previous 7.7) and the Labor Force Participation Rate (previous 61.6). Factory Orders (MoM) follow at 14:00 UTC (previous 0.9, estimate 0.1). Those prints land with R1 at 0.69552 14.7 pips above the last price and the daily pivot at 0.6929 11.5 pips below; the economic calendar tracks the slate as it lands.

News coverage from FX Street and Action Forex has clustered on the 0.695 area and on whether the move lower continues. News sentiment is 54% bullish and 46% bearish, with media mood at 100; the opportunity reading is neutral at -3.

As of the week to September 22, positioning was net short AUD/USD, and speculators added to net short AUD/USD. At the October 1 close, the US 2-year yield stood at 4.78%, down 10 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.24%, down 5 basis points versus September 30, with the 2s10s curve at 46 basis points.

Bottom line

AUD/USD is at 0.69405, up 0.17% in London, boxed between the daily pivot at 0.6929 and R1 at 0.69552 while daily and four-hour trends point down and the hourly chart stays mixed. The single level that matters most remains the daily pivot at 0.6929, with R1 at 0.69552 the first hurdle above and S1 at 0.69028 the trigger if selling resumes.