One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
This is a mechanical sell signal on the Nasdaq 100 at 27188, driven by the "Post-news drift" rule. The strategy dictates shorting because the 15-minute candle following the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release closed down by 44.4 points. While the broader trend is strongly bearish with the daily RSI at 25.4, the index is rebounding today, up 2.6%, placing the entry just above support at the daily pivot (27162.1). Crucially, this specific mechanical rule has a historically negative track record on the Nasdaq. The trade is invalidated if the market reverses above the anchor candle's high, triggering the stop at 27273.1.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
Trade the first reaction. When the 15-minute candle that contains a high-impact data release closes, buy at market if it closed up and sell if it closed down, with the stop at the other end of that candle (at least half an ATR away). Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after six hours at most.
Caveat: -0.08R per trade over 599 trades in the last year (gold +0.02R, EUR/USD -0.06R, USD/JPY -0.07R, Nasdaq 100 -0.23R). Our 2023-2026 study found the same rule positive in every year on gold for US jobs and Fed days only (14-18 trades a year), but negative when all release types were included.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
{"v":2,"symbol":"US100","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"15m","strategy":"news_drift_15m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"27188.0","zone_lo":"27176.9","zone_hi":"27199.1","sl":"27273.1","tp1":"27102.9","tp2":"27017.8","tp3":"26932.7","created_at":"2026-11-06T15:16:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T15:31:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T21:16:01Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"e25d25d2f04845b232900f63f3950ec728f2028d4e5d1aa266a1a0cc26ecf31c"}
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
The mechanical strategy has a highly negative historical record on this index, and the short entry sits just above support at the daily pivot.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record