Gold (XAU/USD) Buy at market
Gold (XAU/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 4,056.66 zone 4,055.60 to 4,057.72
- Stop loss
- 4,043.14 13.5 dollars from entry; moved to 4,056.66
- Target 1
- 4,070.18 hit 6 Nov, 18:45 UTC
- Target 2
- 4,083.70 not reached
- Target 3
- 4,097.22 not reached
- Filled
- 4,056.81 6 Nov, 15:16 UTC
- Closed
- 4,065.51 6 Nov, 21:17 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical market buy on Gold at 4056.66 based on the Post-news drift strategy, which buys if the 15-minute data release candle closes higher. Today's trigger is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The stop is placed at 4043.14, below the release candle's low and the S1 support level at 4048.77. However, the strategy's own backtesting shows this rule is historically negative for Gold when applied to releases other than US jobs reports or Fed decisions. Furthermore, Gold is down over 0.7% today, trading beneath its 20-day EMA, suggesting strong downward momentum against the trade.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Post-news drift
Trade the first reaction. When the 15-minute candle that contains a high-impact data release closes, buy at market if it closed up and sell if it closed down, with the stop at the other end of that candle (at least half an ATR away). Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after six hours at most.
Caveat: -0.08R per trade over 599 trades in the last year (gold +0.02R, EUR/USD -0.06R, USD/JPY -0.07R, Nasdaq 100 -0.23R). Our 2023-2026 study found the same rule positive in every year on gold for US jobs and Fed days only (14-18 trades a year), but negative when all release types were included.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Entry filled 4,056.81
- Signal published 4,056.54
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 40
- TP1 hit 4,070.18
- Stop moved to entry 4,056.66
- Trade closed 4,065.51 Time limit reached, +0.76R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- c124a86643a4b671b9f3dc9a25cbbe3eae2b56187f52df74b69dd956ef4c5f21
- Previous hash
- 2e97d4f2e7c7987757c29f46c9ca8088eb62dacaf79ce3906cc589d226943158
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"15m","strategy":"news_drift_15m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"4056.66","zone_lo":"4055.60","zone_hi":"4057.72","sl":"4043.14","tp1":"4070.18","tp2":"4083.70","tp3":"4097.22","created_at":"2026-11-06T15:16:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T15:31:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T21:16:01Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"2e97d4f2e7c7987757c29f46c9ca8088eb62dacaf79ce3906cc589d226943158"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy's backtest is negative for this type of data release, and buying goes against Gold's intraday drop of nearly 0.8%.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record