USD/CAD Buy limit
USD/CAD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.40787 zone 1.40771 to 1.40802
- Stop loss
- 1.40632 15.5 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.40941 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.41095 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.41249 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical SMC fair value gap buy limit on 1h timeframe per the tested rule: bullish FVG (gap low 1.40648 to high 1.40925, 0.3 ATR+ tall) with 4h 50 EMA rising at bar close 2026-11-06 15:00; entry placed at gap middle ~1.40687 for 6h, stop just under gap low at 1.40632, targets at 1R/2R/3R. At 15:01 facts, price 1.4102 sits above gap high and all targets while far above stop; the limit order would have filled when price dropped to entry, so the position is already long and TP1 was reached first (gap filled, no invalidation). Wrong only if price drops through stop 1.40632, but that is not in play here.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC fair value gap
Fair value gaps are the core of the ICT / Smart Money Concepts style, the most actively maintained family in our libraries (for example the FVG Gold EA and ICT Gold EA, both updated in 2025-26). On 1-hour bars, a bullish gap is a candle whose low sits above the high from two candles earlier, at least 0.3 ATR tall, while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising: a buy limit waits at the middle of the gap for 6 hours, with the stop just under the gap. Bearish gaps mirror it. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested. Hourly bars cannot show whether a target was touched before the limit filled, so the test gave no credit for that; the true figure may be a little better. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Fair value gaps
Timeline
- Signal published 1.41020
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 100
- Expired
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- adf84a0664c270e39e46fe804ac21b71873bc842a2f0dc5d31c1a23ae71c9362
- Previous hash
- 1eebe1c608fb63a1f1ecc937b284c537d0ddbda239663ba4d551474d0f5bb0d0
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDCAD","side":"buy","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_fvg_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.40787","zone_lo":"1.40771","zone_hi":"1.40802","sl":"1.40632","tp1":"1.40941","tp2":"1.41095","tp3":"1.41249","created_at":"2026-11-06T15:01:11Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T23:25:11Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T18:37:11Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"1eebe1c608fb63a1f1ecc937b284c537d0ddbda239663ba4d551474d0f5bb0d0"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 12% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
Current price 1.4102 already above TP1 1.40941 and stop 1.40632; trade reached TP1 without hitting stop
Not enough closed signals scored 90-100 yet (0 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record