EUR/USD Sell limit
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11564 zone 1.11550 to 1.11577
- Stop loss
- 1.11643 7.9 pips from entry; moved to 1.11564
- Target 1
- 1.11484 hit 6 Nov, 15:56 UTC
- Target 2
- 1.11405 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.11326 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11564 6 Nov, 15:14 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11564 6 Nov, 17:38 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical sell limit on EUR/USD at 1.11564, generated by a 1-hour Smart Money Concepts Fair Value Gap rule. The strategy identifies a bearish gap between 1.11498 and 1.11629 while the 4-hour trend is down, waiting for a retracement to the gap's midpoint to trigger the entry. EUR/USD has fallen sharply today, dropping over 100 pips, so the setup aims to join the momentum on a bounce. The stop loss at 1.11643 is positioned just above the gap and aligns exactly with the daily S2 resistance level. Note that this mechanical rule has historically shown a negative tested record across major pairs.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC fair value gap
Fair value gaps are the core of the ICT / Smart Money Concepts style, the most actively maintained family in our libraries (for example the FVG Gold EA and ICT Gold EA, both updated in 2025-26). On 1-hour bars, a bullish gap is a candle whose low sits above the high from two candles earlier, at least 0.3 ATR tall, while the 4-hour 50 EMA is rising: a buy limit waits at the middle of the gap for 6 hours, with the stop just under the gap. Bearish gaps mirror it. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested. Hourly bars cannot show whether a target was touched before the limit filled, so the test gave no credit for that; the true figure may be a little better. Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Fair value gaps
Timeline
- Signal published 1.11461
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 38
- Entry filled 1.11564
- TP1 hit 1.11484
- Stop moved to entry 1.11564
- Trade closed 1.11564 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.34R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 64c567414b9a21637b393f4683ec1121f9300fa8acf6c1f0a84ae039a0290d46
- Previous hash
- 1953c08ebf7e2a297d22e673bcd23290572a02fadfa795e46832a954bedcb764
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"limit","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_fvg_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11564","zone_lo":"1.11550","zone_hi":"1.11577","sl":"1.11643","tp1":"1.11484","tp2":"1.11405","tp3":"1.11326","created_at":"2026-11-06T15:01:11Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T23:25:11Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T18:37:11Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"1953c08ebf7e2a297d22e673bcd23290572a02fadfa795e46832a954bedcb764"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: passed
No high-impact release was due while the order waits or in its first 4 hours.
- Costs: flagged
The spread is 13% of the stop distance (above 10%), so trading costs take a big share.
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a proven negative historical record with a 0.67 profit factor, keeping expectations low despite the strong daily bearish momentum.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record