Expired Buy High Risk Practice trade, no real money Bracket

U Nasdaq 100 (US100) Buy stop

News trading 5M setup Pre-news breakout Data rules Published Ended 6 Nov, 15:30 UTC

No tradeEntry not reached in time

Nasdaq 100 (US100) chart

Bid prices from the tracking feed. Press play to watch the trade.
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Levels

Entry
27,355.2 zone 27,347.2 to 27,363.1
Stop loss
26,892.2 463 points from entry
Target 1
27,818.1 not reached
Target 2
28,281.0 not reached
Target 3
28,744.0 not reached

One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.

Breakout bracket

Breakout bracket: buy above 27,355.2 or sell below 26,892.2. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.

The other side is Sell stop #86 (expired).

Why this trade

This is a buy stop for US100 at 27355.2, driven by a mechanical pre-news breakout rule ahead of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release. The strategy brackets the last 30 minutes of price action with a buy stop half a 5-minute ATR above the range and a sell stop below it. The first to trigger cancels the other. The current trend is heavily bearish on the daily and H4 charts, with the index down over 11% in the last 20 days. If the release spikes price upward and fills the buy stop, the trade is invalidated if it reverses and hits the opposite order level at 26892.2.

ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.

About the strategy: Pre-news breakout

The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.

Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.

The idea, explained: Trading the news

Timeline

  1. Signal published 27,181.1
  2. Reason added
  3. Confidence scored Score 48
  4. Expired

Proof it was not edited

When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.

Hash
4d011c4303dc36c19b86b4eee6f0a6653c308dd925467c6092f8f8f44b5303aa
Previous hash
e9cba32bf5b1dff2388e2bcbd5d51a6d6f8cfbd8987599d94c8929eabf783f26
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"US100","side":"buy","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:US100:1793977200","entry":"27355.2","zone_lo":"27347.2","zone_hi":"27363.1","sl":"26892.2","tp1":"27818.1","tp2":"28281.0","tp3":"28744.0","created_at":"2026-11-06T14:56:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T15:30:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"e9cba32bf5b1dff2388e2bcbd5d51a6d6f8cfbd8987599d94c8929eabf783f26"}

Risk High Risk

  • Track record: flagged

    Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.

  • Type of trading: flagged

    News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.

  • News: flagged

    A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.

  • Costs: passed

    The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).

High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.

Confidence

The strategy has a marginal tested edge, but the strong daily and H4 bearish trend reduces the likelihood of sustained upward momentum.

Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.

Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record

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