USD/JPY Buy stop
USD/JPY chart
Levels
- Entry
- 158.502 zone 158.494 to 158.510
- Stop loss
- 158.241 26.1 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 158.763 not reached
- Target 2
- 159.025 not reached
- Target 3
- 159.286 not reached
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Breakout bracket
Breakout bracket: buy above 158.502 or sell below 158.241. Both orders were published together and the first one to fill cancels the other.
The other side is Sell stop #84 (closed).
Why this trade
This buy stop signal for USD/JPY is generated mechanically by a pre-news breakout rule ahead of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment release. The strategy brackets the last 30 minutes of price action, placing a buy order half a 5-minute ATR above the range high at 158.502, with the stop loss below the range at 158.241. A long entry triggers if the news sparks a bullish spike that clears the previous day's high of 158.479. The stop loss sits on the opposite side of the breakout bracket. Note that this mechanical strategy assumes perfect execution; real fills during news spikes often suffer from slippage.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Pre-news breakout
The classic news straddle. About four minutes before a high-impact data release for the instrument's currencies (US jobs, inflation, rate decisions, PMIs and the like, from our economic calendar; speeches and press conferences are left out), the range of the last 30 minutes is bracketed: a buy stop half an ATR (5-minute) above it and a sell stop the same below it, at least two ATRs apart. The first to trigger cancels the other, and each one's stop is the other's entry. Orders wait 30 minutes after the release; trades close within three hours. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R.
Caveat: Slightly positive over the last year, +0.04R per trade over 537 trades (gold +0.13R, Nasdaq 100 +0.07R, USD/JPY +0.06R, EUR/USD -0.06R), but one year is too short to tell that from luck. Fills are at the stop price; in a real release spike the fill can be worse (slippage), so the true result is likely lower.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Signal published 158.314
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 46
- Cancelled
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 350b8e5fc5c64767608701adae0ddc1e71bf5cc802ead964b7ef3c760a96a638
- Previous hash
- 8dd5d1705f02042f94ca659a6806672eb0f7153588a66f5e51426aba64c9f787
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDJPY","side":"buy","order_type":"stop","timeframe":"5m","strategy":"news_straddle","source":"data","oco_group":"news_straddle:USDJPY:1793977200","entry":"158.502","zone_lo":"158.494","zone_hi":"158.510","sl":"158.241","tp1":"158.763","tp2":"159.025","tp3":"159.286","created_at":"2026-11-06T14:56:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T15:30:00Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T18:00:00Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"8dd5d1705f02042f94ca659a6806672eb0f7153588a66f5e51426aba64c9f787"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy's marginal edge is offset by slippage risks during the news spike, and the tight stop rests precariously close to R1 support.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record