EUR/USD Buy at market
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11858 zone 1.11846 to 1.11870
- Stop loss
- 1.11671 18.7 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.12045 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.12232 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.12419 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11858 6 Nov, 07:02 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11671 6 Nov, 07:33 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a market buy on EUR/USD at 1.11858 with a stop at 1.11671. It is a mechanical signal generated by a Bollinger Band fade strategy, which triggers when the 1-hour candle closes below the lower band (1.11881) with the RSI under 30 (currently 29.3). The daily trend is down, and price is sitting below the S1 pivot (1.11909). Be aware that this rule has a poor tested record, historically losing across most tested instruments with a 0.8 profit factor. The stop is placed slightly above the S2 support at 1.11643, leaving it vulnerable.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Bollinger Band fade
Bollinger Band strategies are the second most starred family in our Pine library (99 scripts, 6,061 stars; for example Bollinger Bands Winner). On 1-hour bars, buy at market when price closes below the lower band (20, 2) with RSI 14 under 30, and sell when it closes above the upper band with RSI over 70. Stop 1.5 ATR, targets 1R, 2R and 3R; the rest closes back at the middle band.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Lost in every year on average; positive on only 2 of 11 instruments (AUD/USD +0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Bollinger Bands
Timeline
- Signal published 1.11842
- Entry filled 1.11858
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 35
- Trade closed 1.11671 Stop loss hit, −1.00R
- Loss review added
- Risk tag added High Risk, as of its publish time
Why it lost, against why it was taken AI review
The trade expected a mean reversion bounce after the hourly candle closed below the lower Bollinger Band with an oversold RSI. Instead, price continued its downward trend without offering any favourable excursion and quickly hit the stop loss.
The reason it was taken
This is a market buy on EUR/USD at 1.11858 with a stop at 1.11671. It is a mechanical signal generated by a Bollinger Band fade strategy, which triggers when the 1-hour candle closes below the lower band (1.11881) with the RSI under 30 (currently 29.3). The daily trend is down, and price is sitting below the S1 pivot (1.11909). Be aware that this rule has a poor tested record, historically losing across most tested instruments with a 0.8 profit factor. The stop is placed slightly above the S2 support at 1.11643, leaving it vulnerable.
What happened
Following the fill at 1.11858 at 07:02 UTC, the price failed to move in favour at all, resulting in a best excursion of 0 R. The highest bid reached was 1.11849 during the initial five-minute bar. The market steadily ground lower over the next half hour, dropping sharply in the 07:30 UTC bar to reach a low of 1.11668. This triggered the stop loss at 1.11671, closing the trade at 07:33 UTC.
The entry was a mechanical Bollinger Band fade based on oversold conditions. As price fell further to hit the stop, the oversold readings only deepened, meaning the strategy's technical premise remained intact even as the trade failed.
During the trade
- Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)
- Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
- US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Eyes 102.08 as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Await US NFP
Lesson: Placing a stop loss directly above a major support level, like S2 at 1.11643, leaves the trade vulnerable to being stopped out before the level can provide protection.
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 25a874037b0ce546b1f73a91ab503cd24613f40f0c672dcbcc5c3ffabb71ee1f
- Previous hash
- ec3e15add7ee75f62016d6babd8fd300d1b1dc3eb40d4b175efe7e46f0f2276d
Show the signed record
{"v":1,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"buy","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_bb_fade_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11858","zone_lo":"1.11846","zone_hi":"1.11870","sl":"1.11671","tp1":"1.12045","tp2":"1.12232","tp3":"1.12419","created_at":"2026-11-06T07:01:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T07:16:02Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-07T16:52:02Z","prev_hash":"ec3e15add7ee75f62016d6babd8fd300d1b1dc3eb40d4b175efe7e46f0f2276d"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Retail Sales (YoY) on 6 Nov at 10:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. This signal was published before risk tags existed; its tag was added afterwards, from the facts at its publish time.
Confidence
The mechanical rule has a consistently poor historical record, and the long signal trades into a daily downtrend with a vulnerable stop placement.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record