USD/JPY Sell at market
USD/JPY chart
Levels
- Entry
- 158.367 zone 158.344 to 158.390
- Stop loss
- 158.583 21.6 pips from entry; moved to 158.367
- Target 1
- 158.151 hit 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC
- Target 2
- 157.935 not reached
- Target 3
- 157.719 not reached
- Filled
- 158.423 6 Nov, 14:01 UTC
- Closed
- 158.367 6 Nov, 16:23 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a market sell on USD/JPY at 158.367. It relies on a mechanical SMC liquidity sweep rule, triggering because the price broke above the previous day's high of 158.479 to reach 158.56 before closing back below it on the 1-hour chart. Contextually, the 4-hour trend remains up, and price is sitting just above the R1 support at 158.239. Crucially, this specific mechanical strategy has a consistently negative tested record across all major pairs, returning an average -0.04R per trade on USD/JPY. The idea is invalidated and stopped out if price rallies past the sweep high to 158.583.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: SMC liquidity sweep
Smart Money Concepts are the most actively maintained family in our libraries (89 of 91 Pine strategies updated in the last year; SMC expert advisors such as SMC Unified EA). On 1-hour bars: when price trades above the previous day's high and a candle closes back below it within 6 bars, sell at market with the stop above the sweep high (plus 0.1 ATR); the mirror for a sweep of the previous day's low. Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; max 48 hours.
Caveat: Average per trade across the 11 instruments tested (7 FX majors, gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ether), costs included. Negative on all 11 instruments tested (best USD/JPY -0.04R). Not tested on WTI or the Nasdaq 100.
The idea, explained: Smart money concepts
Timeline
- Entry filled 158.423
- Signal published 158.367
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 35
- TP1 hit 158.151
- Stop moved to entry 158.367
- Trade closed 158.367 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.59R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- ac65d0176090fa403804227aba339ab3dde109bdf0eb8efefcffedd86641efa3
- Previous hash
- 4c4d7c5441c4911e68012c50a609751d182766602094d969641fa269a61cf259
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"USDJPY","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"1h","strategy":"pop_smc_sweep_1h","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"158.367","zone_lo":"158.344","zone_hi":"158.390","sl":"158.583","tp1":"158.151","tp2":"157.935","tp3":"157.719","created_at":"2026-11-06T14:01:01Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:16:01Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-09T09:28:01Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"4c4d7c5441c4911e68012c50a609751d182766602094d969641fa269a61cf259"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: passed
Intraday trade, not a scalping or news trade.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a consistently negative tested record, and the 4-hour trend remains upward, making this setup unlikely to succeed.
Not enough closed signals scored 30-39 yet (16 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record