EUR/USD Sell at market
EUR/USD chart
Levels
- Entry
- 1.11469 zone 1.11461 to 1.11477
- Stop loss
- 1.11634 16.5 pips from entry
- Target 1
- 1.11304 not reached
- Target 2
- 1.11139 not reached
- Target 3
- 1.10974 not reached
- Filled
- 1.11458 6 Nov, 13:46 UTC
- Closed
- 1.11425 6 Nov, 19:47 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a market sell on EUR/USD at 1.11469, targeting 1.11304. It follows the mechanical 'Post-news drift' rule, which triggers a short position when the 15-minute candle containing a high-impact release—in this case, Nonfarm Payrolls—closes lower. While the daily trend is down, supporting the bearish direction, the pair has already moved 140% of its average daily range, increasing the risk of selling into exhaustion. The stop loss is set at 1.11634, the top of the news candle, which sits right near the daily S2 level at 1.11643.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Post-news drift
Trade the first reaction. When the 15-minute candle that contains a high-impact data release closes, buy at market if it closed up and sell if it closed down, with the stop at the other end of that candle (at least half an ATR away). Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after six hours at most.
Caveat: -0.08R per trade over 599 trades in the last year (gold +0.02R, EUR/USD -0.06R, USD/JPY -0.07R, Nasdaq 100 -0.23R). Our 2023-2026 study found the same rule positive in every year on gold for US jobs and Fed days only (14-18 trades a year), but negative when all release types were included.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Entry filled 1.11458
- Signal published 1.11469
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 40
- Trade closed 1.11425 Time limit reached, +0.20R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- 891067098548bcfc9ecd69db727d8486a8fd445aec31cf39d9506dac2fc00fd8
- Previous hash
- fe16bdf393ca35ff05b3482c757ef6c43469c7b0fc8b839d8448df3896264315
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"EURUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"15m","strategy":"news_drift_15m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"1.11469","zone_lo":"1.11461","zone_hi":"1.11477","sl":"1.11634","tp1":"1.11304","tp2":"1.11139","tp3":"1.10974","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:46:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:01:02Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T19:46:02Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"fe16bdf393ca35ff05b3482c757ef6c43469c7b0fc8b839d8448df3896264315"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy has a negative tested record for EUR/USD, and the pair has already exceeded its daily average true range.
Signals scored 40-49 have won 49% of 47 closed.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record