Gold (XAU/USD) Sell at market
Gold (XAU/USD) chart
Levels
- Entry
- 4,047.22 zone 4,046.26 to 4,048.18
- Stop loss
- 4,060.72 13.5 dollars from entry; moved to 4,047.22
- Target 1
- 4,033.72 hit 6 Nov, 14:15 UTC
- Target 2
- 4,020.22 not reached
- Target 3
- 4,006.72 not reached
- Filled
- 4,047.35 6 Nov, 13:46 UTC
- Closed
- 4,047.22 6 Nov, 14:46 UTC
One third of the trade closes at each target, and the stop moves to the entry after target 1.
Why this trade
This is a mechanical sell signal on Gold following the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The "Post-news drift" rule mandates selling at market if the 15-minute candle containing a high-impact release closes down. While this strategy generally loses money across most assets, backtesting shows it has been consistently profitable on Gold specifically during US jobs and Fed days. The NFP data sparked a bearish drop on the 15-minute chart, pushing price below the S1 pivot at 4048.77 in line with the broader daily downtrend. The trade is invalidated if price reverses above the news candle's high at 4060.72.
ChartPrice structure on the chart: trend, levels, volatility.
About the strategy: Post-news drift
Trade the first reaction. When the 15-minute candle that contains a high-impact data release closes, buy at market if it closed up and sell if it closed down, with the stop at the other end of that candle (at least half an ATR away). Targets 1R, 2R and 3R; trades close after six hours at most.
Caveat: -0.08R per trade over 599 trades in the last year (gold +0.02R, EUR/USD -0.06R, USD/JPY -0.07R, Nasdaq 100 -0.23R). Our 2023-2026 study found the same rule positive in every year on gold for US jobs and Fed days only (14-18 trades a year), but negative when all release types were included.
The idea, explained: Trading the news
Timeline
- Entry filled 4,047.35
- Signal published 4,047.22
- Reason added
- Confidence scored Score 56
- TP1 hit 4,033.72
- Stop moved to entry 4,047.22
- Trade closed 4,047.22 Closed at entry after TP1, +0.34R
Proof it was not edited
When this signal was published, its fixed fields were written to a record and fingerprinted with SHA-256. The fingerprint also contains the one before it, so a change anywhere breaks the chain. You can check it in your browser.
- Hash
- fe16bdf393ca35ff05b3482c757ef6c43469c7b0fc8b839d8448df3896264315
- Previous hash
- ebbf36adfb059c2822842010efc957215a2d21d48f4c69b2b2a62175212d5137
Show the signed record
{"v":2,"symbol":"XAUUSD","side":"sell","order_type":"market","timeframe":"15m","strategy":"news_drift_15m","source":"data","oco_group":null,"entry":"4047.22","zone_lo":"4046.26","zone_hi":"4048.18","sl":"4060.72","tp1":"4033.72","tp2":"4020.22","tp3":"4006.72","created_at":"2026-11-06T13:46:02Z","expires_at":"2026-11-06T14:01:02Z","max_close_at":"2026-11-06T19:46:02Z","risk":"high","prev_hash":"ebbf36adfb059c2822842010efc957215a2d21d48f4c69b2b2a62175212d5137"}
Risk High Risk
- Track record: flagged
Its rule was not profitable after costs in every period we tested.
- Type of trading: flagged
News trade: prices can jump when the numbers come out, and orders can fill worse than their price.
- News: flagged
A high-impact release is due while the order waits or early in the trade: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on 6 Nov at 15:00 UTC.
- Costs: passed
The spread is a small share of the stop distance (under 10%).
High Risk means at least one check flagged this trade. Size it smaller, or skip it if you only follow Cautious signals. The tag was set when the signal was published and is part of its signed record.
Confidence
The strategy's general record is poor, but it shows a consistent historical edge specifically for trading gold after US jobs data like today's NFP.
Not enough closed signals scored 50-59 yet (8 of 20 needed), so there is no measured hit rate to show.
Confidence is a score from 0 to 100 given by an AI model. It is checked against how signals in the same band really ended, so treat the measured rate as the evidence, not the score. Reading a track record